I seem to be the resident pessimist, so I might as well put on my misery-cape and fly in.
Your timing for asking this question is interesting because coincidentally I sold my free-carry parcel left over from the last capital raising just this afternoon at $1.80. Here are the factors I considered before making this decision:
- I don't believe there is manipulation in the normal sense of the word. The last CR took the company away from retail holders (over 80%) and gave it to large/institutional holders (now over 80%). I believe that the new owners are prepared to let the retail ants scuttle around doing their little trades, at least while they are lifting the price up.
- I believe that the early run-up after the CR was largely driven by the conviction frequently aired here that "the company wouldn't have raised so much capital if there wasn't a massive order about to land".
- The early run-up has created news, which has attracted a lot of attention, which has in turn attracted a lot of buyers on the basis that "past performance is a guarantee of future performance".
- These recent arrivals are likely to be nervous about adverse share price movements and may contribute significantly to negative momentum if there is a reversal in the share price.
- There were only two sales announced during the quarter, and those were of insufficient value to satisfy the expectations being aired after the CR.
- Therefore I expect that the quarterly report, when it is released at the end of the month, may disappoint on several points relating to revenue, cash flow, and capital management.
- The quarterly therefore seems to be a likely trigger for a share price correction.
On the basis of this, I felt it reasonable to take my money off the table.
Note that none of this speaks to the long term prospects of the company. I have made a point-in-time decision about probability and short term share price movements.
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 122664 | $1.41 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1 | 23487 | 1.405 |
17 | 182935 | 1.400 |
5 | 181081 | 1.395 |
9 | 276675 | 1.390 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.420 | 376 | 1 |
1.430 | 67636 | 6 |
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