Just to be clear, there is nothing wrong with trying to figure...

Just to be clear, there is nothing wrong with trying to figure out the why. It is more to do with: first identify a share that is a good long-term investment, then develop a strategy whereby whether it goes up or down, you still come out ahead.

Hence I am happy when a share goes up (it is a selling opportunity) and when it goes down (it is a buying opportunity). I just avoid issues such as 'do you think it has hit the bottom' or 'do you think it has peaked?'
A friend once coined the phrase 'red noise' which is a loose metaphor related to Brownian motion. The theory is that no matter the random movement of a share price (white noise) there remains a restoring 'force' which causes the share to also target toward the 'fair price'. In the case of blue-chip shares 'fair price is generally well-known by the application of accepted formulae. In the case of speculative shares the fair price is unknown. Therefore for blue-chip shares volatility trading opportunities are limited (and best applied when there is a crash). Volatility trading is far more appropriate for shares such as DRO - where people have a wide divergence of what is the fair-value. Anyone who has been following DRO would realise that for some people a 'fair price' is about $1.20 whereas for others the $2.50+ price is also 'fair'.

I am not specifically advocating this strategy - other than to say I have done well out of DRO by using it. But clearly if anyone can predict the bottoms and the peaks then they will have huge advantage. I just think this is not possible.