DSK should be $5 by now, page-6

Here's my cash flow analysis (Full disclosure, I recently increased my position size by 30% and will be adding another 20% once my funds enter my account - total portfolio size for Dusk is now 25%+).

This is what I see as a worst case scenario.15% discount rate is used.


This is what I see as a more likely scenario. Same discount rate used.These numbers I came to by modelling the member growth rate, along with the higher uptake of eCommerce sales through Dusk. New store growth has been considered to be negligible as I see the growth being more of a SOW growth opportunity rather than a market growth opportunity (Hopefully both play out).


The bull case I have is like this. Essentially everything goes well - assumption is that in year 5 they start to expand into more regions (I also hold the opinion that the USA could either be the pinnacle or death of this company).


Has anyone else come up with similar numbers? At a 24% discount which is already implying a 15% return annually, I am quite comfortable making this a significant portion of my net worth.

Not investment advice, this is my research and numbers for discussion.