DSK 1.92% 79.5¢ dusk group limited

I just laughed at the 3 for 1 share consolidation but thought...

  1. 1,578 Posts.
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    I just laughed at the 3 for 1 share consolidation but thought I'd try and provide a more serious answer too.

    The way I would think about "what it would take" to get back up around your purchase price would be to think in terms of the earnings and work backwards from there.

    Unfortunately DSK listed in a period that was a complete "one off" for retail which suddenly had a tonne of customers, receiving stimulus and having a heap of time on their hands without the ability to allocate a large portion of their yearly earnings to travel. We were right in the sweet spot offering an "affordable luxury" and I'd be pretty confident our demographic of customers were some of the most inclined to spend rather than save their government hand outs.

    So unfortunately I think we can forget about the good old days of the EPS being an extraordinary 36c per share in FY21 (if you looked at those earnings your stake at $2.60 was bought on a very attractive PE if 7 and an incredibly high fully dividend yield. I'd be interested to know what your investment thesis was at the time but I think this is understandably where a lot of holders came unstuck including me!).

    Now we need to look at what is realistically achievable in a more conventional trading environment when we don't have a long history of DSK as a public company to look at.

    I think there's a pretty good hint in the recent performance rights granted to Vlad (the new CEO) who will have his options vest in increasing increments between if the EPS is between 20c (the bottom end) and 26c per share (the top end) by FY26.

    To me this would suggest we can take 26c per share as managements best case yet realistic scenario over the next few years presuming he get's the strategy right and the retail environment improves.

    If we could get to that and DSK traded on a very undemanding PE of 10 we'd be back to your purchase price ($2.60) and you'd hopefully be receiving a nice fully franked dividend yield around the 15c per share mark (Presuming a 60 percent pay out ratio).

    So I'd say for what it's worth it's not out of the question if we think of fundamentals but a lot would have to go right to justify getting back to that price and it won't happen overnight.

    It's also a tiny thinly traded stock that's going to fluctuate pretty wildly so something may happen completely out of the box like a takeover offer or shareholder activism etc. as the share register is wide open.

    For what it's worth I recently bought some more but my average price is $1.30 so I'm still well under water and expect to be for quite some time yet.

    I hope this gives you some food for thought and more than happy to discuss further.
 
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Last
79.5¢
Change
0.015(1.92%)
Mkt cap ! $49.50M
Open High Low Value Volume
78.0¢ 79.5¢ 78.0¢ $3.721K 4.73K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 12108 79.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
79.5¢ 11348 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
Last
79.0¢
  Change
0.015 ( 1.28 %)
Open High Low Volume
78.0¢ 79.0¢ 78.0¢ 4562
Last updated 15.15pm 03/05/2024 ?
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