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my major concern is not about whether the DUB product is any good technically as I believe it is... it's about whether the DUB product is sellable and companies want to buy it."
To
@tradie130, and all the "nervous nellies" out there, I understand you losing some confidence in Dubber's service offering, given the large share price decline. I hope that the following analysis will give you confidence that Dubber's services are eminently "sellable" and that "companies want to buy it".
To remove the normal quarterly fluctuations, I have looked at performance trends over the last 2 years. Only 2 years ago, the Dec 2019 quarter results revealed the following:
- ARR: $10.65M
- Revenue: $2.4M
- Operating Cash Receipts: $1.23M
- No of users: 122K
If we now fast forward to the latest Dec 21 quarter, Dubber has achieved the following over that 2 year period:
- ARR: $51.8m, an increase of 386%;
- Revenue: $8.5M, an increase of 254%;
- Operating Cash Receipts: $6.6M, an increase of 436%;
- No of users: 510K, an increase of 318%.
The Operating Cash Receipts (OCR) in the latest quarter would have been approx $1M higher if not for the delayed payment from a large customer of one of the Company's international subsidiaries. Even with this quarterly "hiccup", OCR growth has been outstanding at 436% in 2 years. A recent post of mine advised not to put too much emphasis on one quarter's results, as these can jump about quite a bit.
The number of users does not include Foundation Partner Program subscriptions, so 318% growth in 2 years is also understated.
IMO, these growth rates prove that Dubber's services are resonating well with customers. The size of ARR at over $50M now (and quickly heading to > $100M in perhaps 18 months) IMO proves that Dubber has a clear Product - Market Fit (PMF). PMF means there’s a product or service that sells - typically because it is better, faster or cheaper than the existing solutions.
Now that Dubber has revealed that the current core operating costs for the business are approximately $5.0m per month, I expect that they will ensure that future operating cash outflows (not including investments and acquisitions) grow much more slowly relative to sales than they have in the past. Due to the now-significant scale of Dubber's business I expect to see rapid growth in incremental ARR, revenue and cash over coming quarters.
