Dubber.Dubber.Do., page-6783

One thing we could say about the covering analyst on Dubber Corporation Limited (ASXUB) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

After the downgrade, the sole analyst covering Dubber is now predicting revenues of AU$42m in 2023. If met, this would reflect a substantial 65% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analyst was forecasting revenues of AU$55m in 2023. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Dubber, given the sizeable cut to revenue estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Dubber'shistorical trends, as the 65% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 is roughly in line with the 56% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 16% annually. So it's pretty clear that Dubber is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst cut their revenue estimates for this year. The analyst also expects revenues to grow faster than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Dubber after today.