Hey Tech, yes I do look at this company optimistically, and here's why. The Australian telco service industry is a relative minnow on world terms. You need to look at Dubber's worldwide revenue and markets, which are growing at a significant rate. Dubber management has made it abundantly clear to anybody who bothers to listen that their focus for the last 5 years has been to grow the worldwide footprint of telco service providers using their embedded platform, which is a shift away from the old call recording business they began with in 2011. You are comparing apples and oranges. The focus is not to sell directly to end users. Hence sales in a small market like Australia's should not be your focus as an indicator of Company performance. The growth in and quality of the TSPs embedding Dubber as their call data capture and storage solution is far more important, and is now over 210 TSPs worldwide and growing.
As far as the Speik acquisition in 2020 goes, one acquisition does not a trend make! Here is the quarterly growth trend for you:
Dubber Qtly Sales History Sept 23.pdfIf guidance is met this year, the revenue growth rate YOY is approx 50% -
organic. I say that's pretty solid! The Speik acquisition was just a one-off strategic move 3 years ago and doesn't account for the growth trend since. Note also the rapid growth in North America (the biggest market), which Dubber is focusing on now quite heavily with regard to marketing this year.
I think the market also misunderstands who Dubber's customers are, as it seems do you. Dubber does not compete with Chat GPT and the others you listed. Dubber provides the platform and voice data capture capability
across all forms of telecommunications including mobile phones to the Telcos who then onsell Dubber as a service for use in products like Chat GPT. Dubber's customers are the likes of Optus, Singtel, Vodafone, Verizon, BT etc, who all see Dubber as a
unique solution to provide unified call capture across ALL telco modes, which nobody else can do. In addition they are now providing out of the box AI tools to analyze that voice data, for those Telcos to provide as a point of difference to their customers, simply by flicking a switch. This rollout has only just begun with selected A-grade telcos as a tester, and we should see some traction on this by the June quarter I believe. No allowance has been included for this in the revenue forecasts, which I think is pretty exciting! Again this is a big point of difference to other call recording offerings.
Here's a compelling fun fact Steve McGovern gave at the last investor day presentation. In developing their whole AI and business strategy for the future, one of the biggest Telco service providers in the world which used to use 50+ key external vendors connected to their network, cut the number of those suppliers down to 6 key relationships. Those 6 are:
Apple
Microsoft
Samsung
Ring Central
Cisco, and
DUBBER
3 hardware providers, 2 software and UC providers, and one content provider - Dubber. Pretty compelling case for Dubber's relevance.
Maybe I do look through rose coloured glasses at Dubber, I think it's a very good business model. I also think too many investors are focusing on their share investment losses and not properly analyzing the underlying company performance. Again I say the vast bulk of share price drop over the last 2 years is beyond Dubber's control. I feel the company is performing very well at the moment. I am keen to see the Dec quarterly result to see if they remain on track for $45M revenue. Which by the way would be an annualised $50M exit run rate at June this year on revenue, and augurs very well for the future.
At 13c it's a steal in my opinion, hence my sentiment
Cheers
Spike
(20min delay)
