Due Diligence Done

Spent several days now checking the nooks and crannies of this company.

The assistance I have had from posters has been helpful so thank you. On most forums when you query things all you get is "down ramper!" and other nonsense.

I ended my research with a DCF analysis. I used discounted NPAT rather than FCF's for simplicity.

Discount rate: 12% (chose higher than usual to account for added risk of being a foreign company)
Revenue growth: -20% growth rate decay pa. (i.e. 19.89%, 15.91%....down to 6.52% in 2019)
Perpetuity growth rate from 2019 onward: 3.5%
Net Profit After Tax Margin: 17.49% (this is the lowest NPM from all reported financial years)
Net Debt: -$18,706,084 (So that is negative debt so is effectively added to the DCFs)
Fair Value: $260,236,929
Total Issue: 471,738,000 shares
Share price: 55.16c

I also experimented with decaying revenue growth by 25% in 2014 and 2015 but this still gives 51.96c a share.

All in all, incredibly good value at these prices, and still extremely good value when at 25c.

So the investment decision added up very well. The only question then was is this company reliable, and are the financials fairly accounted for? What is the chance this is worth no more than a fancy leaflet and pictures of european men looking weirdly stylish? We have to rely on their auditors that the figures they have given us are legitimate. We know that the auditors and respected Australian directors have visited China so just like any company operating overseas we have to trust the numbers we see (and factor in some extra risk in the DCF i.e. the 12% rate). I would suggest now with the CFO being Australian we are in safer hands - and this was another positive for me. I imagine the resignation of their former CFO may well not have been fully voluntary (opinion only), and that SBB wanted to get an Aussy CFO in to increase credibility - if they had things to hide they certainly wouldn't have called an Aussy into the job, wouldn't you think.

By fair valuation I see the upside to certainly be more than 300% from here, but if the company continues on it's reported path and Australian shareholder's trust grows with it, the share could be fairly valued at over 500% of the current price no problem. So downside is very much smaller than upside, the odds are very much skewed in SBB holders favour.

So now it's just the question of buying in and lucky for me there has been a dip down from 15c to 10c, people are worried and selling purely because the forward momentum hasn't been in a straight line by the looks of it, so what luck for me.

Please review (audit ; )) my numbers and give feedback, always good to double check numbers against each other for certainty. If someone can do a FCF DCF to compare I would appreciate very much the comparison.

If you've never done a DCF and are keen to try with this company, Investopedia have an easy to follow guide: http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/

Enjoy.