Tax selling, or not, the medium-long term risk is to the upside, IMO. I've tried to do a DCF using contracts that we know about and get a valuation estimate of about 60-70M. I'm no accountant, and I've made some some pretty big assumptions, but it comes out roughly inline with current market cap of 75M.
After the state one report suggesting there may be a couple of auto deals this year (maybe they know some that I don't) I added in some auto parts sales. Starting with 2.5M for 2014 ramping up to capacity for Bankstown facility over a few years, I get an estimate of about 160M. So roughly double current SP. Stateone price target is 0.50-0.60, which is a bit more than I would be comfortable with until there is is some definite new deals.
QHL Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
