Dunkley byelection, page-404

In the 2022 election there were 93,968 valid votes cast and at last night’s close 80,793 being 74.2% of the implied 108,000 enrolments.

If the by-election pattern to date were pro-rata’d to a total of 93,968 we would see the following:

	2022 Election			2024 By-Election				Change on 2022
	Count	%		Count	Pro-Rata	%		Change	as a %
Liberal	25,493	27.13%		31,702	36,871	39.24%		11,378	45%
Labor	39,792	42.35%		33,082	38,477	40.95%		(1,315)	(3%)
Greens	15,278	16.26%		5,156	5,997	6.38%		(9,281)	(61%)
Others	13,405	14.27%		10,853	12,623	13.43%		(782)	(6%)
	93,968	100.00%		80,793	93,968	100.00%		0

Reviewing these numbers we see the Greens would appear to have significantly swung behind the Liberals.

The final count, and the subsequent distribution of preferences are keenly awaited.