Dunkley's Labor margin of 6.3% may put it in the 'safe' seat category, but that's a categorisation more relevant to a general election than a by-election. Few who know this part of Melbourne would view Dunkley as safe for Labor, especially at a by-election. On its current boundaries, Dunkley's margin sits just above Labor's 2022 state-wide result in Victoria, the seat occupying a pivot point on the state's electoral ledger.
