Antony Green has a informative blog post about byelection swings. He points out that issues which are current at the time have an influence on outcomes. At the moment the cost of living and housing seems to dominate the thoughts of those citizens not interested in Australia Day culture wars and associated boycott virtue signalling.
Across the 28 two-party by-elections, the average anti-government two-party preferred swing was 3.5%. It was 4.7% against Labor governments in 17 contests, and 2.3% against Coalition governments in another 11. Of the 28 by-elections, 15 were in government held seats and 13 in seats held by an opposition party. The average swing against government in government held seats was 5.4% compared to only 1.2% in Opposition held seats.
At the eight by-elections in Labor seats during Labor governments, the average swing was 8.2% compared to 2.3% in seven similar contests during Coalition governments.
