You're accurate with your commentary. The consensus among those who do this for a living is that Dunkley was/is a marginal seat, and the result is a kick in the guts for Dutton and the Lnp. This was Duttons springboard to relevance but sadly someone pinched the springs. The Lnp had lots of things on their side...the Voice failure, 12 Interest rate rises, cost of living pressures, unsavory refugees being released into the community, etc etc....all being potential fodder for Dutton. Add to that Hanson and Palmer not running. Instead he goes to ground and sends out his offsiders to do some screeching at the sky. The wash up is a big Labor win with a slight increase in their primary vote. Poor Lnp and Dutton got bashed up and only managed a below average swing from a sitting Govt with all that fodder. Any analysis which claims the Lnp are on track is nothing more than lipstick on the proverbial. This byelection was a disaster for the Lnp by any measure. Albo just needs to keep on keeping on do more of what he's done and the next election is his to lose.
