You’re using a smaller data set for no other reason than it suits your bias. The largest data looking at historical results for all by elections removes the nuances of each by election, like Dunkley, with a sitting member passing away mid term.
The Opposition achieved bang on the average swing against the government, in what is a safe seat by margin. There was only 1000 votes between Labor and LNP yet you’re carrying on like a clown. You’re wrong. Deal with it
