Dutch censor MH17 black box, page-19

The flight data recorder merely records the parameters of the flight and of the systems on board. It only tells part of the story. From that data investigators can only surmise the most probable cause of the catastrophe.
Investigators need to look at the wreckage, the debris field and analyse the damage to the airframe before impact in order to be certain. Despite the tampering of evidence, I am sure the investigators have enough data.

There has never been any doubt, from the first minutes of the news that it was shot down.

But by whom? Both sides are engaged in an information and truth warpingpropoganda battle. Thus neither side is believable until a "neutral" third party produces evidence.

Its possible the black box data was inconclusive and was suppressed to stop it's misinterpretation being used as a propaganda tool by either side. The investigation must be de-politicized.

The CVR transcripts will be interesting but will be unlikely to prove anything, it can add to the weight of evidence.

As for the crew seeing the missile prior to impact? Possible but unlikely. Not a lot of looking out goes on, the scenery is mostly the same when you're at 30,000 ft. Most likely one will be monitoring the flight, the other working the radio and they will be exchanging nasi goreng recipes to kill the time - it's a boring tedious job.

I don't see any big conspiracy by the Dutch just yet.