Dutton raises stakes over Taiwan with talk of war

Has Peter Dutton just committed Australia to a future war against China? His latest comments seem to suggest so.

Three days after Paul Keating said that Australia should stand aloof from any such war, Defence Minister Peter Dutton on Saturday said: “It would be inconceivable that we wouldn’t support the US in an action if the US chose to take that action,” he told The Australian.

“I think we should be very frank and honest about that, look at all of the facts and circumstances without pre-committing, and maybe there are circumstances where we wouldn’t take up that option, (but) I can’t conceive of those circumstances.”
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Why the US will abandon island of Taiwan eventually: Global Times editorial

Will the US abandon Taiwan? Fundamentally speaking, this is a matter of time and situation, and it will not be decided by a few elites in the US and Taiwan. We believe that as long as the mainland's strength continues to grow, and as long as it prepares fully for military struggles and has a firm will to unify, then there is no doubt the US is doomed to eventually abandon Taiwan.

First, there is no official document in the US that requires it to send troops to defend Taiwan. Once it does, the US president and his administration will break the legal framework and engage in a strategic gamble of having a war with another major power. It would be an unprecedented war mobilization in the US since the end of World War II.

Fourth, what capital does the island of Taiwan have to make it different from Afghanistan? As long as the costs of supporting the Taiwan authorities far outweigh the benefits, the US will abandon the island immediately. In 1949, the US abandoned the Kuomintang as it saw the latter was not worth supporting. Then the US diplomatically abandoned the island of Taiwan in 1979 because having diplomatic ties with the mainland better met its interests during the Cold War against the Soviet Union. When it comes to defending Taiwan in a costly and unwinnable war, the US will choose the lesser of two evils and the American people will not allow their young generations to die in large numbers for Taiwan secession.

Fifth, US abandonment of Taiwan will be a move that acknowledges the change in power between China and the US. But it won't mean more losses for the US. Such a change cannot be concealed. To maintain the illusion that the US will continue backing the island will finally exhaust Washington as time goes on. Therefore, the US will eventually have to accept the reunification of the mainland and the island of Taiwan, even though it might be seen as a bitter fruit by Washington.

Sixth, when the situation is complex, realism will play a decisive role as dramatic changes take place in the Taiwan Straits. Once the mainland decides to unify by force, it will be unstoppable and destroy the capability and will of the island military to resist in a few hours. There will be a time gap for the US to react. With such a lag, a new cross-Straits situation will be quickly shaped and known to the world. If the US wants to change that new status quo through a war, it will have to bet its national fate. Washington has no reason to do so.

In a word, the Chinese mainland's determination to contain Taiwan secession and promote reunification won't budge. If the Taiwan authorities really view the so-called sovereign independence as the island's lifeline, then they should start now to mobilize people for war and multiply the military expenditure to increase combat capabilities. Given Taiwan society's obsession of "small but sure happiness" and fanatical about political infighting, the island's authorities are clearly thinking that they can achieve the goal of secession by enjoying the comfort under US protection. But it's time to wake up!

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231877.shtml


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