thanks mate, always appreciate seeing your cold hard numbers,...

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Stratopher

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18/10/21

17:22

Post #: 56884928
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

I was expecting DW8 $500k x 3 months ($1.5M) + Parton's $1.25M x 2 months ($2.5M) = $4M minimum.

The $500k for DW8 is from Investor Presentation June revenue for 27k cases. July was about 30.5k cases equating to $565k using same metrics. August should be about 34k cases = $630k & September 37k = $685k. About $1.88M for DW8 + $2.5M Parton's = $4.38M.

The most recent Investor Presentation indicated about $3M revenue combined with Kaddy - $225k Kaddy = $2.775M Q1 FY22 which seems very low.

It appears DW8 will be about $1.5M + $1.275M Parton's being for only one month.

With $2.8M Q1 FY22 revenue x 4 = $11.2M run rate x 22 = $246.4M MC + $8M cash = $254.4M MC / 1.881B shares = approx. 13.5c SP.

Most likely the 4C will be announced 26/10/2021. By 2/11/2021 shares on issue will increase to 2.145B thus $254.4M MC = approx. 12c SP. And then on 1/12/2021 shares on issue will increase to 2.46B so same MC = approx. 10.5c SP.

Short term I expect SP to rise to 12-13c the week of 4C announcement & then retreat to around 10c in November due to the dilution. This week will be interesting to see if SP goes lower to near CR 5.6c SP & bounces of 5.5c to form a double bottom on the chart.

Q2 FY22 should show revenue of $5M x 4 = $20M run rate x 22 = $440M MC + $14M cash = $454M MC / 2.46B shares = approx. 18.5c SP most likely mid February 2022.

Sometime in February/March 2022 I am expecting a big announcement or two to propel the SP to target 1 being 33.5c. The above SP's mentioned are during SP lows when there is a lack of momentum. At 33.5c SP the MC will be $822.1M & the multiple will be about x40 which is similar to the acquisition price of Kaddy at x38. Last year the multiple exceeded x100 during SP peak so x40 is not excessive for new ATH SP. Expecting prior peak around mid February 2022 & target 1 about a month later mid March 2022.

I have eBev acquisition pencilled in for April 2022. Then forecasting $50M revenue run rate or $12.5M quarter by December 2022 & cashflow positive.

$50M x 30 ( mid point between lows & peak ) = $1.5B + $10M cash = $1.51B MC / 2.54B + 905.9M Ebev = approx. 44c SP.

Without eBev $30M x 30 = $900M + $10M cash = $910M MC / 2.54B = approx. 36c SP.

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thanks mate, always appreciate seeing your cold hard numbers, taking into account the caveats around known unknowns and unknown unknowns of course.

DW8 Price at posting: 6.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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