Agree with @Astutebusyguy, tons of good info in this thread. In addition to the company and industry fundamentals that'll give a real sense of the potential of DW8's value proposition and specific drivers, I'd suggest also reviewing the valuation as a potential driver to re-rate the SP considering the time-specific nature of your question. Without knowing specifically the definition for 'in the near-term' (e.g. 4 weeks vs. 3 months vs. 6 months, etc.), consider the historical unit growth and the absolute number of cases shipped, avg. / blended pricing, the volume of the DW8 legacy operations, and then add WDA's figures -- see the Nov figures -- to get a reasonable ballpark assumption for where we are before the Dec 2020 / 4Q 2020 figures come out.
Even without the CEO's comments yesterday ("...the volume of wine going through our networks the last 4 to 6 weeks has been absolutely astronomical...") and assuming just carrying over the Nov figures into Dec (i.e. zero m-o-m growth for Dec), there is a very conservative case to be made (i.e. a very low forward growth assumption that helps smooth out potential seasonality impact) that see 12-month sales (FTM) exceeding $4M. And that is using substantially below-trend growth expectations and excludes any contribution that is expected to come from the B2B platform from 1Q 2021 onward. [Note that the latter by itself could result in sales figures substantially exceeding that of the legacy business(es) in both absolute and growth rate terms.] Apply a 20-25x sales multiple which is IMO appropriate and you realize the shares are currently trading at approx. 20-35% below its FV which doesn't price in all the known information yet. So IMO it is just a matter of time before on a valuation basis alone there will be a re-rating of the SP and that tends to correlate highly with news flows when the market realizes its assumptions may have been incorrect.
Going back to the timing question: one can make an educated guess when re-ratings may occur as several milestone events are coming up over the next couple of weeks to 6 months, and these are the just ones we already know about. The announcement of 4Q 2020 sales (expect this in roughly 2-3 weeks’ time; use yesterday's comment as a heads up), the announcement of the B2B platform going live (expected by the end of 1Q 2021), and the first full quarter sales for the firm that include the Wine Depot legacy business + WDA + the B2B platform (prior milestone + 3 months). Each one of these events by itself can affect a substantial re-rate, although I rather focus on the impact of all three over the next 3-6 months to get an idea of where the SP may be heading during 2021 using a very conservative growth assumption to derive a floor FV estimate. Sprinkle a few other psychological, cap structure, and calendar year-end specific elements into the mix -- such as the options expiring Feb '21, year-end profit-taking, etc. -- which will be removed in the 'near-term', and the story should be quite clear. Hope this helps. As always, DYOR and run your own numbers. GLTAH.
DW8 Price at posting:
4.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)