@AshfieldWell, that seems like a reasonable question to ask, so...

@Ashfield

Well, that seems like a reasonable question to ask, so here are some other factors investors may wish to consider to come up with their own explanation as to why the stock has been "lagging at 4.3c" since early Nov whilst being up over 600% YTD. Spoiler alert: Includes references to options, price momentum, uncertainty, and some other items that have been discussed and laid out multiple times before and should have been picked up by even a cursory review of this forum.

1) As many posters have pointed out they've been adding to their existing positions in recent weeks on the relative weakness in the SP to the most recent high (--> that distinction is important as that was only about 10 weeks ago!!! ). That most likely implies that the majority of posters' positions were built in the run-up to the initial peak above 6 cents, or maybe prior to the second peak in mid-Oct, so the majority of their holdings (in shares) have already been in place before the more minor top-ups in the last 8 weeks. That means that major buying activity would unlikely come from HC posters, but rather would have to from new buyers. That matters as it does with how these things work with every other stock that's moving from micro-cap to small-cap to mid-cap to large-cap to .... you get the point.



2) The dollar amount required to acquire 1M shares is now 6x vs. what it was on June 1st. That has implications on what firepower is needed to propel the SP upward in the same % terms -- all other factors equal -- at this level vs. at a lower one, which is another factor to consider. Add to that the cap structure changes of the recent past impacting the denominator and you can do the math to determine what AUD amount is required to affect the same 10% SP shift from starting point X vs. from Y where the SP was 4 or 5 months ago. And that's before considering the options. (Good thing is we are coming up on a number of trigger events, including the first 4 quarters of sales which will give instos the foundation on which to start modeling things out in addition to other items).

3) As @Jrswish008 pointed out, the number of options to expire in less than 8 weeks from today is substantial, especially when considering nearly as many options (around 90M) were already exercised over an 8 week period that started right before the SP peaked initially above 6 cents. Knowing that alone can impact position building strategies and timing of buys for investors. That (on top of the B2B delay) may have contributed to ST momentum-driven traders pulling out from mid-Oct which helped propel the share price up very quickly until then. Suggest you take a look at the daily share turnover in Nov and Dec vs. the prior 3-5 months and that will give you another aspect to consider with regards to your question.

4) The majority of options as far as the filings indicate were issued to former directors and some service providers who helped with cap raises. The former directors did not leave on the best terms and actually tried to get rid of Mr. Taylor when he started the process of cleaning up the firm. Simply take a look at the SP and operations the years prior to Mr. Taylor joining the firm. I am sure there is a certain level of vindictive behavior when it comes to dumping these shares and/or exiting positions that have been on service providers' books for a lot longer than is the industry norm considering they were basically worthless until Dean turned the firm around. The way the shares are offloaded during the day vs. price moves, etc. and timing gives a strong impression the holders are not trying to minimize price impact, rather the opposite. I certainly cannot and will not fault current management for the inherited options load and its unfortunate timing of offloading. Unfortunately, that's sometimes how business goes and I am certain Dean's not happy about the impact on the SP either as the largest shareholder.

5) Last but not least fundamental factors and valuation play a role in my opinion as well. When the share price on an intraday basis peaked above 6.5 cents a while back, a number of HC investors cautiously voiced concerns that the SP may have gotten a little ahead of itself at that time vs signups, the number of orders and cases shipped, revenue, B2B delay, etc. -- basically data available at that point. Needless to say, there's been a lot more clarity on numbers and impact of the acquisition, the timing of the B2B platform, etc and we are now indeed facing a situation where the FV is arguably meaningfully above the current SP.

The above items should add some context to hopefully reassess your assumption that "...with the heat and buying ethoria in these posts these options would be bought up and the stock would well over 6c...". In addition, there's uncertainty as to when the outstanding options a) may be converted, b) how many may be converted and c) how many of the issued shares may then be sold in the open market allowing others to mop them up. The only thing we do know for certain is that the vast majority of options expire in less than 8 weeks from today; the rest is uncertain and guestimating trying to rationalize what's impacting the SP in the short-term. And your statement in that context is rather inappropriately short-term focused.

I guess every investor deals with uncertainty in a different way and for some having a clear idea when these headline figures will be removed is enough to support their otherwise sound investment thesis. None of the above items are really new as we've discussed these at various depths before in this forum and are available for everyone to consider. If you feel rather anxious about the SP despite all of these facts, and in particular that the SP hasn't recovered its all-time high in a time frame of fewer than 3 months (!) from said high, then it might make sense to review your own assumptions, expectations, decision & investment framework if your typical investment time horizon is > 3 months. If it is actually less than 3 months then something went wrong with timing the entry of the trade considering all the information that was available at the end of the 3rd quarter. (Just trying to look at this from all sides without having the full picture of what triggered your specific comments.)

Regarding the bullish comments you referenced underlying your assumption, it makes sense to remember that the comments on Hotcopper represent but a small portion of views held by investors on the ASX and the same goes for this stock and its dedicated forum, so it would be wise to consider them as such with regards to their bearish or bullish nature and the overall scale. You may hear the most bullish or bearing argument from Duda2919 who holds 5,000 or 45M of the 1.56 Billion shares outstanding, is/isn't an industry expert, is/isn't a professional investor, etc (pick your factor) -- always treat the statements for what they are -- other peoples' opinions expressed pretty much anonymously -- and do so using an appropriate context. That's is not an attack or disregard for my fellow HC posters, it is just common sense for anything related to peoples' postings online, especially when dealing with statements at the extreme end of the spectrum. It is not others' responsibility to justify their statements, although that is certainly good sportsmanship and encouraged to have an engaging and respectful dialog. Likewise, when asking questions it would make sense to do so in an objective rather than a presumptive manner. In the end, no matter how good or *** a comment on HC is, it should not matter to you as your investment decisions should be driven solely by you, your own research and conviction alone. Just my opinion, no offense or harm meant, hopefully it helps flush out the spectrum of factors impacting the SP at any point in time.