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DW8 Growth, page-4022

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    It is a very rough estimate. I did it as an exercise to see what figures look like.

    We can use the DCF model the other way around to calculate future earnings based on the current SP.

    Current $183M MC - $8M cash = $175M / 0.683* = $256.2M / 5 = $51.24M revenue in 4 years from now. If you think DW8 can generate more revenue then SP is currently cheap & vice versa.
    *DCF @ 10% https://www.cimaglobal.com/Documents/Student%20docs/2010%20syllabus%20docs/P1/P1-performance-operations-tables-2010-syllabus.pdf?utm_source=referrer&utm_medium=banner&utm_campaign=p1samples

    As DW8 is a SaaS type business I prefer to use the following chart to determine the revenue multiple based on growth rate. The current 50% QOQ growth = 406% pa thus a multiple of x44-45 TTM revenue is applicable. It is x4 for nil growth & then add 10 for every 100% growth YOY.

    About $4M revenue run rate x 44-45 = $176-180M + $8M cash = $184-188M MC fair value.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3015/3015653-fa1adaa02645686eb51711a85f4289c5.jpg

    Last edited by steve10: 19/03/21
 
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