DW8 Growth, page-5272

We can try find faults in the business model if we can & ways it could potentially fail.

The main one for me is DT departing. Yes the blueprints are there & could be followed/refined by a new CEO such as James Munn or Aaron Brasher but they may not have the same vision/contacts etc that DT has.

They can run out of money, however, they are well supported at this stage in credit raises that are oversubscribed.

They could buy a dud acquisition creating friction in the team but they seem very thorough in their approach & don't rush the acquisitions.

B2B could fail to gain traction but there are many benefits & cost savings for both suppliers & buyers. With thousands of sku's in the system & thousands of trade buyers via Bibendum this risk should be minimal. If anything they may be at or near the tipping point upon launch.

The logistics offering has been successful & grown rapidly. DW8 have majority market share in one of Australia's premier wine regions, McLaren Vale in just over 12 months. DT mentioned in the recent interview that it costs $26-30 to send a case of wine from regional areas to cities interstate whereas DW8 can do it for about $8. That is a huge difference & that is why they are signing on. They were not competitive before outside of their state whereas now they have most of Australia as an addressable market & soon international markets too.

If B2B is successful & some of the majors are losing market share to the small players on the DW8 platform how will they react? They will have to build a similar platform, try undercut DW8 on logistics which may be difficult due to increasing DW8 volumes, poach a few key DW8 staff, takeover DW8 etc. Distributors will not drop their margin to 10% to compete as they will go bust. What else could they do to harm B2B?

The big one I think now is B2B traction. If it is very slow to grow will require pivot of plan/refine plan etc. Judging by DT's comments in the interview he is very bullish with B2B & is aiming for similar 1,000% YOY growth numbers to logistics. Also, very confident that DW8 will take 5% market share & it is a matter of when & not if.

DT & the DW8 team are top guns so I would be very surprised if B2B failed to gain traction within the next 12 months.