Have been reviewing figures to estimate break even. I have allowed $1.4M for expenses per quarter without PMOC.
The average per case for wine is $225 for "On Premise" & DTC with about 5.5M cases in each segment = 11M cases total per year.
In summary, if DW8 can retain 8.8% or 414 of Bibendum's trade buyers & they purchase 10 cases per week DW8 will break even. It equates to 4.2% market share of "On Premise" only B2B in Australia.
At $225 average per case x 12% fees* = $27 + $5 freight = $28.25/$32 = 88.3% GP
*Used 12% inleau of 12.5% as a few customers may not use fast payment
Thus for $1.4M GP per quarter to break even require about $1.585M B2B revenue per quarter @ 88.3% GP
$1.585M / 12% fees = $13.2M GTV incl. freight revenue
$13.2M GTV incl. freight revenue / $230 per case incl. freight = 57,391 cases per quarter x $225 = $12.9M GTV B2B + $300k freight.
57,391 cases per quarter = 19,130 cases per month = 4,414 cases per week. So require 441 regular “On Premise” buyers x 10 cases per week.
441 buyers / 5000 buyers via Bibendum = 8.8% retention rate required
“On Premise” is 20% of $5.3B = $1.06B in 2018 at 5% CAGR = $1.227B in 2021
$1.227B / $225 per case = 5.45M cases per annum or about 5.5M
“On Premise” market size = $1.227B pa thus $51.6M GTV = 4.2% market share wine only vs 5% DT first target
DTC market Australia = $1B pa for 4-5M cases = $200-250 per case in 2018 & growing at 10% CAGR thus $1.21B in 2021 & 4.84-6.05M cases. Say $225 per case average & about 5.5M cases per annum.
1% market share of 5.5M cases pa in 2021 in Australia = 55,000 cases pa x $225 average = $12.375M GTV pa x 6% fees** = $742.5k pa + 55,000 cases x $10 freight = $550k x 25% = $137.5k GP thus $880k GP / $1,292.5k revenue pa = 68% margin
**Used 6% fees via Ebay,Vivino & a few customers not using fast payment
Total Australian B2B “On Premise” Only/DTC = $2.5B for 11M cases = about $225 per case
Above is for wine only B2B “On Premise” only & DTC Australia only.Also have B2B Liquor, Export, Retail customers & DTC global drop shipping customers for wine & other liquors too.
Currently at 25,000 cases per month logistics only x $12.40 average = $310k pcm x 12 = $3.72M revenue run rate.
When cases grow to about 45-50,000 per month DW8 should break even. Cases growth is up 696% YOY & 37% QOQ.
(20min delay)