I agree with the valuation approach used by @ksvs but believe we'll see valuations over 50c. I believe 50c isn't anywhere near where the share price will peak in the next 3-5 years. My forecast is based on the logistics business only using historical valuation ranges to guide potential future ranges. Assuming 30% growth each quarter in cases shipped and revenue/case of $9.99 (a 19.5% discount to current pricing, nil B2B revenue, and using forward 1-year revenue est for multiples) the potential is very meaningful. It's even bigger with the B2B but that's hard to estimate atm because we lack volume guidance.
This is one possible scenario in which DW8 touches approximately 2.5% of the total wine produced in Australia over the next 3-5 years. Even with the growth rate lowered by 1/3 to only 20% per qtr and using historical valuation ranges (to date), the future valuation range could still top out 44% above 50c by end of 1Q 2023 using this approach. FYI, this is just one man's opinion and attempt to estimate the range of potential outcomes. Share prices have a tendency to over and undershot their fair value all the time, so using ranges is one way (of many) to try to guesstimate what may happen. It remains a BUY for me. DYOR and GLTAH.
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