Here are last years MOM cases growth from Q4 2020:
April - down 13.5% in 2020 vs down 9.1% in 2021 to 23,006 cases.
May - up 29%
June - up 40%
July - up 9%
August - up 28%
September - down 14.7%
October - up 34%
November - up 8% due to heat
December - cannot estimate as blended in with WDA. Most likely 10-15% as only 3 weeks.
You can use April's 23,006 cases as the starting point & $12.40 per case average to estimate the following months & quarters. This is for the logistics business only.
With B2B can start with 2,000 cases in May x $105 per case & 12% fees + 2,000 cases x $5 per case logistics. Increase the case numbers by 2,000 per month as all the trade buyers come online incl. Melbourne gradually during the next 3-4 months. From there on only increase it by a conservative 2,000 cases per month. GP margin on logistics is 25% & B2B margin is 78.7%.
About $1.4M GP per quarter required to break even will occur about Q3 2022.
I am also expecting B2B to boost the figures from the last week of December until mid-January as people will be celebrating in venues so the venues will be ordering heaps while e-commerce takes a breather. It should result in smoother revenue compared to last years drop off.
The announcement mentioned several large trade orders being delivered in April boosting the cases per order from 2.06 to 2.42. They most likely launched to a handful of customers the last week of April prior to the official soft launch.
Several large trade orders = more than two but not many according to the dictionary so let's assume 5.
9,512 April orders - 5 B2B = 9,507 x 2.06 usual = 19,584 cases. 23,006 total cases April - 19,584 cases usual = 3,422 cases B2B large trade buyers & reduce by 50% due to wine club run = 1,711 cases feasible.
Another way to calculate B2B cases is to use last year's drop of 13.5% MOM in April. March was 25,311 x 86.5% = 21,894 cases. Thus, 23,006 total cases - 21,894 as per usual drop MOM = 1,112 cases B2B large trade buyers.
So there was about 5 orders & at least 1,000 cases B2B in 1st week of unofficial B2B soft launch to a handful of trade buyers.
B2B per 1,000 cases x $105 = $105k x 12% fees = $12.6k revenue/GP
B2B per 1,000 cases x $5 freight = $5k revenue x 25% = $1.25k GP
Revenue of $17.6k per 1,000 B2B cases & GP of $13.85k = 78.7%
April – 22,006 x $12.40 = $272,874 + $17,600 B2B = $290,474
May – 28,380 x $12.40 = $351,912 + $34,200 B2B = $386,112
June – 39,730 x $12.40 = $492,652 + $70,400 B2B = $563,052
TOTAL Q4 2021 = $1,239,638 / $271,000 YOY = 357.4% = x40 multiple
$1.24M x 4 = $4.96M x 40 = $198.4M + $7M cash = $205.4M or 12.5c SP.
July = 43.3k x $12.4 = $536,930 + $105,600 = $642,530
Aug = 55.4k x $12.4 = $686,960 + $140,800 = $827,760
Sept = 47.3k x $12.4 = $586,520 + $176,000 = $762,530
TOTAL Q1 2022 = $2,232,820 / $1,239,638 = 80.1% QOQ
YOY = $2,332,820 / $400,277 = 482.8% thus x52 multiple
$2,332,820 x 4 = $9,331,280 x 52 = $485.2M + $5.5M cash = $490.7M or 29.5c SP
Oct = 63.4k x $12.40 = $786,160 + $211,200 = $997,360
Nov = 68.5k x $12.40 = $849,400 + $246,400 = $1,095,800
Dec = 69.7k x $12.40 = $864,280 + $281,600 = $1,145,880
TOTAL Q2 2022 = $3,239,040 / $2,332,820 = 38.8% QOQ
YOY = $3,239,040 / $712,498 = 354.6% thus x40 multiple
$3,239,040 x 4 = $12,956,160 x 40 = $518.25M + $5.3M cash = $523.55M or 31.5c SP
Q2 2022 = $2,499,840 logistics x 25% = $624,960 GP
$739,200 via B2B x 78.7% = $581,750 GP
TOTAL GP = $1,206,710 (=37.25%) & near break even requiring $1.4M per quarter
Q3 2022 will be flat similar to Q3 2021 = 768.5 / 712.5 = +7.9% QOQ logistics
Q3 2022 = $2,499,840 logistics x 1.079 = $2,697,327 forecast x 25% GP = $674,331 GP.B2B allow 16k cases same as December x 3 months = 48k cases = $844,800 GP.
Q3 2022 revenue of $3,542,127 & total GP = $1,519,131 (=42.9%) & cashflow positive
YOY = $3,542,127 / $768,498 = 360.9% thus x40 multiple
$3,542,127 x 4 = $14,168,508 x 40 = $566.7M + $5.4M cash = $572.1M or 34.5c SP
By this time next year should be break even & expanding into UK etc
No allowance for DTC/Insider Trading which will most likely make up the difference in any shortfall above.
The above calculations use MOM cases growth data from 2020 which may or may not be accurate. They are ball park figures with a few assumptions. As volume picks up $12.40 average per case may reduce to $10 per case & B2B $5 average per case may reduce to $4 average per case due to passing on volume discounts.
(20min delay)