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healthyinvestor

2,791 Posts.

344

01/06/21

11:10

Post #: 53558360
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Originally posted by steve10 ↑

Using revenue & growth metrics for April fair value should be as follows:
23,006 cases x $12.40 average = $285,274 x 12 = $3,423,288 annual run rate. YOY growth = 580% therefore 58 + 4 = x62 multiple.

$3,423,288 x 62 = $212,243,856 + $7,900,000 cash = $220,143,856 or 13.2c SP.
(Note: No allowance for B2B, only logistics)

Looking ahead for May:
30,000 forecast cases in May 2021 / 4,355 cases in May 2020 = 588% YOY growth therefore 59 + 4 = x63 multiple.

30,000 x $12.40 = $372,000 x 12 = $4,464,000 annual run rate x 63 = $281,232,000 + $7,400,000 cash = $288,632,000 or 17.3c SP.
(Note: No allowance for B2B, only logistics)

Looking ahead for June:
39,000 forecast cases in June 2021 / 6,612 cases in June 2020 = 490% YOY growth therefore 49 + 4 = x53 multiple.

39,000 x $12.40 = $483,600 x 12 = 5,803,200 x 53 = $307,569,600 + $6,900,000 cash = $314,469,600 or 18.9c SP.
(Note: No allowance for B2B, only logistics)

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Wonder if the market will agree with your back of the envelope calculations...

I for one believe in you Steveo

DW8 Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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