Anyone reading this forum (and other sites referenced re DW8 commentary) to determine if to sell/trim/hold/add/buy DW8 shares should remember the cardinal rule: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! Consider anything posted here or elsewhere only as one of many inputs and within the context of your own research and equally important common sense. Without that the risk of falling victim to behavioral biases or being unduly influenced by comments along the spectrum of views being presented is quite high and may detract from your investment performance.
Without a basic understanding of the firm's strategy, business, financial and operational models, financials, etc. it is so easy to fall prey to seemingly articulate analysis that misrepresents or bends aspects to fit the poster's intended narrative when a detailed or comparative analysis can often poke massive holes into the message. Sometimes the giveaway is getting a very basic aspect of the analysis or business wrong that at a minimum should place a big question mark over the post and underlying assumptions fueling the analysis and its conclusion/recommendation. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing on assumptions or different interpretations or conclusions, but clearly understanding the drivers of specific interpretations/assumptions in views is critical to continuously test and retest one's thesis on a standalone and relative to other viewpoints' basis. You don't want to miss when the 'other side' -- whichever that may be -- has something that really should affect your view, so keep an open mind but use common sense. Stupid is as stupid does as momma said.
Beware self-proclaimed industry experts on HC whether it is from the wine, logistics, finance, IB, or asset management industry. Even behind the veil of HC's anonymity, people from certain industries commenting here will be rather cautious in what they share and how due to the nature of their actual work environment and the MO they've developed over the years. Discount comments appropriately that fall outside of the norm to avoid getting suckered into things that are a waste of time at best and at worst may cost you money in the short or long run. Use common sense, especially during high-stress times, to determine the validity and applicability of posts. Not sure whether you should answer the post of a person (supposedly) managing other peoples' money who's trying to offload a top 20 shareholder block in the open market after having (supposedly) overextended himself yet who appears to lack any basic understanding of implementation? Common sense may offer the answer if you are struggling with these types of questions.
Always, and I really mean ALWAYS, run your own numbers to establish a thesis (even if rudimentary) or test/verify what others post/forecast/claim as too many investors -- retail and institutional alike -- fall for fluff on either side of pump/dump type comments as fear & greed rule our minds. And without a solid basic understanding of the firm, etc. that is simply not possible. Break valuation down into its components even using the most simple metrics and compare them across time and determine whether there are any factors that would make yesterday different from today and from tomorrow, and what that may be and how that supports or doesn't support your initial or current thesis/outlook over your investment time horizon. You'll be surprised how a little bit of using a calculator or excel helps expand your view and understanding of levers and what matters or may matter less over different time horizons. And always remember that anyone with that knowledge will still have to deal with their own psychological makeup on top of that, especially during times when the SP deviates too far from its ideal median LT glide path which represents opportunities for skilled investors if it fits within their investment approach, is exploitable and they have the gall to invest accordingly. Not everyone has the stones to go contrarian to the trend, yet that's how usually the big money is made. And getting the timing right requires research too.
Peter Lynch once famously stated that people tend to research the hell out of everything from cars, to dishwashers and TVs before they buy it, yet when it comes to investing they willingly punt their life savings on a stock they overheard on their way to work that morning. Regardless of whether you approve of his investment approach, that saying packs some serious truth. Don't be an idiot getting into stocks without research as that usually means you'll lose your money buying high and eventually end up selling low as you'll be just as easily swayed to get out at just the wrong time. Use common sense relating share prices to a company's development over both a short-term and long-term time horizon. And If you ended up in a stock having bought on a hot tip or FOMO, then right now might just be exactly the right time to do your own research to potentially avoid a round trip mistake. Last but not least, patience -- more often than not -- is indeed a virtue. GLTAH and do yourself a favor by doing your own research. Otherwise you're just maximizing the probability of continuously transferring your hard-earned cash to those screaming the loudest and maximizing the return of others.
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