DW8 Growth, page-8787

Deconstruct how valuation expressed in the upper (and lower) range limit is derived and you'll find that your second para relative to the first section is superfluous. That's because neither the chart (or I) seek to provide a specific point estimate nor argue what is realistic or unrealistic. The chart simply extrapolates based on historical min/max points a potential range of outcomes based on two variables -- one which remains static (the valuation multiple) and one growing at a consistent and arguably achievable pace over the forecast period (cases shipped/revenue). The chart captures the breath of valuations at which market participants historically were willing to value the company and exchange shares at different points in time (1Q 2021) but with pretty much the same underlying fundamentals, thus illustrating the valuation range or dislocations from an avg/mid point. That's in a nutshell price discovery and a pretty illustrative example of how widely SPs can deviate above/below a midpoint or some perceived value.

Assuming you're not arguing about the moderate cases shipped QoQ growth assumption applied over the forecast period, the argument could only be with the max rev multiple the market assigned which drives the upper SP limit. You're entitled to consider the underlying multiple to be 'unrealistic' though I would point to the fact that some investors thought exchanging shares at 21c was a sensible transaction at that valuation level at one point and statistically speaking this could happen again, regardless whether you believe it to be a 'realistic valuation level' or not. I suggest approaching this from a probability perspective instead, asking how likely is it that this multiple will be met or exceeded again in the future as that will impact the upper limit. If you're convinced the April '21 multpile level was 2x what you'd anticipate a normalized max level over the next 3 years should be then that allows you to extrapolate and reset your upper limit assumption accordingly, which may or may not match what the market ultimately does in the future.

The chart isn't intended to explicitly express the maximum or minimum SP of the stock over the coming years -- that's one repeated misperception by readers. By providing a range based on the two input factors it provides a starting point for analysis, including share price dislocations (which simply capture the full range of other market participants vs. one's own view over time) and discussions about the probability of certain variables changing in the future. As such it's a simplistic, yet sensible roadmap in assessing dislocations. To emptytrolly's view, it's down to each reader to determine whether they consider April '21 rev multiples as a 1 sigma or 3 sigma event and what the probability of revisiting such a multiple over the coming 3 years (or ever) is.