Hi all, interesting looking company and wanted to do some due diligence first. Interested to hear other people's perspectives but I've spent a bit of time doing a NPV of DW8 based on revenues, forecasted revenues, expenses and forecasted expenses. I get the following:
Assumptions by Q4 calendar year 2027. Revenue growth quarter on quarter: 25% until 2023, where it drops to 15% (due to scalability limitations). After which I've made assumptions to decrease revenue growth to more achievable targets. Capital Raise Q1/Q2 2022 @7c to raise $6m First profit: Q4 2023 Expenses: increase at $300k per quarter (Expenses initially increase higher than revenues). There is high variability with expenses going forward, and trying to look forward can be difficult, this was my best conservative estimation based on previous trends. P/E: 40 - quite high compared to your blue chips, but it's a high growth small cap company. Margin of Safety: 40% (lower than other calculations, due to slight de-risking of the company) Suggest sell price: +30% of expected market price
Couple of things Interesting to look at the first post on this thread from @Salubrious who had a price target of 14c by 2027. I hope you sold out at the top of the rise to 17c! I must admit, I've used a few of your assumptions in my spreadsheet, so thank you for your DD.
Some things to note: 1. Dilution was more significant than forecasted in @Salubrious spreadsheet, with my forecasts requiring approximately 1.97b shares fully diluted (I'm unsure of any outstanding options etc, so I apologise for not incorporating this into my forecast). 2. I have forecasted earnings by end of year 2027 to be % higher than their spreadsheet. However, they are negative (blacked out) due to net losses until first profit. 3. Market price of 7c is considered fair given my forecast using a time period of 5.5 years (note this forecast above is for 6.5 years), so you guys could see a bottom here!
Open to any comments or discussion, as there is large uncertainty in a 6+ year forecast, I think I'll wait for either a price drop, or until I see fantastic sales after the December quarterly before investing.
Disclaimer: not financial advice, I am not a professional and is up to you to do your own research and invest based on your financial situation.
GLAH, I think if successful, this will be a long hold with above market returns.
DW8 Price at posting:
7.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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