DW8 Growth, page-9147

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stu1101

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20/08/21

10:08

Post #: 55436203
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

I have been reviewing Endeavour liquor only & Metcash liquor only. Either Endeavour, Metcash or Bevchain could potentially takeover DW8 once B2B Market is established.

Metcash - $4.4B pa revenue & $88.7M EBITDA = 2%. Up 19.2% YOY despite Trade lock downs.

Endeavour - $11.132B pa revenue & $823.8M EBITDA = 7.4%. Up 5% YOY. Includes online sales of $772M pa.

They both have low single figure EBITDA making them vulnerable to disruption, however, they are large enough to acquire DW8.

Metcash has a large Trade customer base & sales grew substantially during the lock downs.

The lock downs will be benefiting DW8 as online sales demand will be high. Parton will most likely have lower keg units due to venues being in lock down, however, they will have high demand supplying retailers. 80% of liquor sales are retail & only 20% are trade. With half the population in lock down it would be about 90% retail & 10% trade now.

DW8's EBITDA will increase every quarter as the percentage of B2B Market revenue increases. It may be about 5% initially similar to Endeavour & Metcash but then it will increase as the contribution from B2B revenue increases. Logistics will generate about 25% GP & B2B will generate about 100% GP in fees. Every case traded via B2B & also shipped will generate 67% GP. B2B Market is going to become the larger revenue stream. Overall they may generate 45-50% GP & 20-25% EBITDA which is very high compared to Metcash at 2% & Endeavour at 7.4%.

It is very easy for DW8 to raise funds via new shares & acquire numerous companies due to the highly fragmented industry. Don't be surprised if DW8 revenue is in excess of $100M pa within a couple of years.

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Lets hope that if there is a takeover offer that its a lot higher than it is now

DW8 Price at posting: 6.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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DW8 Growth, page-9147

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DW8 Growth, page-9147

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