I think break even will occur Q1 2023. About 50c SP will be fair value at a multiple of x25 at lower end. The company is a mix of logistics & tech thus should command a revenue multiple somewhere in the middle of both. As tech revenue via B2B & profit margin increase the multiple should increase.Q12022
DW8 –30.5k + 33.5k + 36.5k = 100k x $18.52 = $1.85M
B2B/ITC –1k + 1k + 2k = 4k x $220 x 12.5% fees = $110k
DTC – 0.1k+ 0.2k + 0.3k = 0.6k x $110 x 6% fees = $4k
DW8 – 4.6kx $18.52 = $85k
DW8 - $2.05M/ -$1.25M
PWG –120k x $21.60 = $2.59M / $50k
$1.25M /60k = $21.60 incl. +3.65%
TOTAL= $4.64M / -$1.2M = x0.26 vs x2 FY21 & x6 FY20 cashburn ratios
$4.64M x4 = $18.56M x 25 = $464M + $8.8M cash = $472.8M MC or 26.5c SP
Q22022
DW8 –35k + 37k + 30k = 102k x $18.52 = $1.889M
B2B/ITC –2k + 3k + 4k = 9k x $220 x 12.5% fees = $247k
DTC – 0.4k+ 0.5k + 0.4k = 1.3k x $110 x 6% fees = $8k
DW8 –10.3k x $18.52 = $190k
DW8 -$2,.334M / -$1.12M
PWG –180k x $21.60 = $3.888M / $70k
TOTAL= $6.222M / -$1.05M = x0.17 cashburn ratio
$6.222Mx 4 = $24.888M x 25 = $622.2M + $7.75M cash = $629.95M MC or 35.5c SP
Q32022
DW8 –25k + 30k + 35k = 90k x $18.52 = $1.67M
B2B/ITC –4k + 5k + 6k = 15k x $220 x 12.5% fees = $412.5k
DTC – 0.3k+ 0.4k + 0.5k = 1.2k x $110 x 6% = $8k
DW8 –16.2k x $18.52 = $300k
DW8 - $2.39M/ -$0.85M
PWG –180k x $21.60 = $3.888M / $100k
TOTAL= $6.278M / -$0.75M = x0.12 cashburn ratio
$6.278Mx 4 = $25.112M x 25 = $627.8M + $7M cash = $634.8M MC or 35.5c SP
Q42022
DW8 – 37k+ 39K + 42k = 118k x $18.52 = $2.185M
B2B/ITC –7k + 8k + 9k = 24k x $220 x 12.5% fees = $660k
DTC – 0.6k+ 0.7k + 0.8k = 2.1k x $110 x 6% fees = $14k
DW8 –26.1k x $18.52 = $483k
DW8 -$3.342M / -$0.6M
PWG – 180kx $21.60 = $3.888M / $100k
TOTAL= $7.23M / -$0.5M = x0.07 cashburn ratio
$7.23M x4 = $28.92M x 25 = $723M + $6.5M cash = $729.5M or 41c SP
Q12023
DW8 –45k + 50k + 55k = 150k x $18.52 = $2.78M
B2B/ITC –10k + 11k + 12k = 33k x $220 x 12.5% fees = $907k
DTC – 1k+ 1.2k + 1.5k = 3.7k x $110 x 6% fees = $24k
DW8 –36.7k x $18.52 = $680k
DW8 -$4.39M / - $0.1M = x0.02
PWG –190k x $21.60 = $4.1M / $150k
TOTAL= $8.49M / $50k cashflow positive
$8.49M x4 = $33.96M x 25 = $849M + $6.5M cash = $855.5M MC or 48c SP
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