DXB Chart, page-375

Pretty close to the mark it seems!

The most comprehensive study I can find on drug development probability of success (POS) is that only 13.8% of drugs entering Phase 1 make it to Approval. But this rises to 21% for drugs meeting Phase 1 endpoints and entering Phase 2. But for those that meet Phase 2 endpoints and enter Phase 3, the probability of approval rises to 59% - and that is Approval, not just success in Phase 3.

And if oncology drugs (which have a significantly lower POS) are omitted from the analysis, the success/approval rate from Phase 3 rises to a hefty 63.6%

https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524

So agree - given this relatively high rate of success from Phase 3 (almost 2 out of every 3) - together with the Advanz deal - it is indeed, an attractive 'punt'!