I like charts for trading things, Heiken-Ashi are a smoother candle based on averages of the day and yesterday etc, pitchforks are direction type indicators that have a range and a mid point, they aren't exact and neither are Heinekens but they work reasonably well for options trading etc. I find with companies that have had a material change to the business like DXB has had it is a bit pointless trying to chart things until they quieten down and a better indication of range etc falls into place...
anyway.. until then its worth having a look at the 30 minute chart over the last month to smooth out some of the erratic buying and selling that's happened in the last week or 2. The top is Heiken-Ashi or Heinekens Asahi as my computer wants to auto-correct to... big leap on announcement of commercial deal then just a narrow band of buying and selling. Lots of people have held for a while and others more recently so a liquidity event allows old holders out and traders to flick shares around... played out against the concerns of the current Macro environment of Fed rates, Israel, everything else it looks remarkably stable... I would say that the market has largely priced in the soon to be paid $10m hence the stability.
Below is the same chart but with traditional candles revealing pretty much the same as above... in a range of liquidity and new buyers..
Below is a daily chart and pitchforks.. fairly pointless drawing pitchforks as the business is now different from before.. it is commercialising. Same thing happens in mining when explorers start to produce and sell whatever they are digging for.. big jump into a new dimension. that last blue upward pitchfork is suggesting that DXB isn't finished its upward leg. If options were available (not meaning company issued ones but on the options market) I would loo at selling puts and using those funds to buy calls, i.e it still looks bullish. The bottom squiggles of MACD and slow stochastic (which is the same as William R but different number scale) suggests that it is still in a bullish phase but maybe slowing down on that blistering run... so real surprises there.. could probably draw an upward triangle or bullish pennant on the last 5 bars or so
Same chart as above but with traditional candles... all looks like the same story but told in a more exciting fashion with more dramatic leaps etc... more of a pennant than a triangle but still looking up
Thing to note on the last 2 charts is the development of a Doji (thin cross looking candle) on both candle and Heiken charts... Dojis are hard to find on a Heiken chart as they require a bit of maths from the prior period to line up with the current period... I usually think that they mean a bit more on a chart of average movement and especially in conjunction with a traditional candle Doji.... usually means something is happening in the market... maybe the punters have kicked out all their 6c-14c trading parcels and the buyers are buying to hold? Might also mean that everyone is running out of cash and the Macro environment will catch up and knock DXB down?
If Phase 3 trials are successful then all of this is redundant.. a PE of 30 wouldn't be ridiculous and if there are earnings from milestones etc to generate $33m in profit then DXB is a $1b company. If it is unsuccessful then charts won';t reveal anything on the way down to the abyss... fun place to have a punt!
(20min delay)