DXB discussion in another forum

Hi All,

@Matt Adl responded to my question in another forum about DXB and what he thinks. Thought I'd repost it here. All great points, but I'd also point out:

*There's more information about the competitive endpoint for efficacy available.
*Dimerix have a new hire who is a licensing expert with many bigger deals up his sleeve.
*June/July there will be a major safety and efficacy release.
*There have been several big Australian biotech buyouts - and our new member of the board was a part of them.

FROM @Matt Adl :

"Just went over where they are at and financials, there are few key points of contention that could determine a good entry point.

1st at 0.006 a share the orders are stacked @26m making it unlikely you will get in unless you buy at 0.007.

2nd DMX-200 with a 50% probability of clinical success - these figures need to improve somewhat through the testing phase as customers and doctors are going to prefer a higher % of success.

3rd  product can license to a pharma partner in FY19 (base case) or FY18 (optimistic case) for US$30-50m upfront, US$100-200m in milestones and an 8-12% royalty. Finding a pharma partner and developing an upfront revenue followed by MS+R agreement is not guaranteed on these figures, if this translates succesfully your looking at estimated 13-30c company minimal; however, this is at least 1-2 years off.

4th  product launch in FSGS in FY22 (base case) or FY21 (optimistic case) in the US and FY23 (base case) or FY22 (optimistic case) in Europe - long way till product launch, creating little interest in the stock or chance at recouping investment, it would be a MT/Long play for sure

5th company raises another $10m at $0.01 per share in order to complete both halves of the current Phase 2 for DMX-200 as well as move other pipeline elements forward - this seems like the best time for a short play, if you can acquire at 0.007 and they plan to CR at 0.01 translates to .3 raise; however, looking at current turnover, not sure how the SP will hit that target unless the subscription is to SI only.

Bio-pharma is highly speculative with significantly high peaks with substantial down-turns between, this company is still a fair way off and I would predict closer to the end of the year may be a better accumulation point if you don't want capital tied up. Right now it would be a pure punt, but if your keen on it give it a go and see how it turns out, will keep my eye on it and see how the company progresses."