More positive note, ROW NdFeB demand has grown nearly 50% past 3...

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ausheds

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25/02/18

20:46

Post #: 31329853
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Originally posted by ausheds ↑

Hate to be a party pooper but here's a bit of reality from the coal face.

JL Mag is a leading NdFeB manufacturer, downstream subsidiary of Sth RE Group, largest HRE producer by some measure.

Been tracking their forecast Chinese EV/HEV numbers past couple of years, and it's been remarkably accurate given off 2014 base.

Forecast 2017 740k vs 777k actual:

"In 2017, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 777,000 units, an increase of 53.3% over the same period of previous year. Among them, pure electric vehicles sales of 652,000 vehicles, an increase of 59.6%; plug-in hybrid vehicles sales of 124,000, an increase of 26.9%."

http://www.chinaiol.com/nea/s/0122/25191690.html

Though this says 606k over 351k 2016: http://www.ev-volumes.com/

And Macca's say 579k: https://www.*.com.au/the-rapid-growth-in-global-electric-vehicle-sales-in-4-charts-2018-1

But they do broadly agree a global total ~1.1M (perhaps 1.3% global vehicle sales), so reasonable to add 50% to the following numbers for global demand additional Dragon demand:

View attachment 984211

Taking China 2020 NdFeB demand 2540t and adding another 50% for ROW = 3800t, a very long way from the 13kt projected in the prior forecast.

Note also, using the same formula, the largest HRE producer on the planet is forecasting <200t Dy demand EV/HEV vs a Chinese capacity 3127tpa and 1050t 2017 production @ 30% operating rates.

For perspective their 2017 forecast for NdFeB into A/C was 2480t:

View attachment 984238

Also illustrates the rapid deletion Dy (by the planet's largest producer!!!) with the penetration Grain Boundary Diffusion, and every reason to believe that has accelerated with advances low oxygen process & finer particle alignment.

Are JL Mags numbers right? Top 5 NdFeB, 6000tpa capacity, vertically integrated 50% Dragon's HRE production & 15% LRE, a key part of the MSC, I think I'd back them over a dry university study. Confirmed with the organisers that they will be presenting this year Metal Events HK November, the update should be interesting.

View attachment 984250

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More positive note, ROW NdFeB demand has grown nearly 50% past 3 yrs, 21kt > +30kt, is this coincidental?

Improved cost efficiency/reduced supply anxiety.

Back in 2012 one of the leading SmCo producers forecast it, but if anything underestimated GBD, and could not predict low O2, fine particle, etc:

Last edited by ausheds: 25/02/18

LYC Price at posting: $1.99 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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