ausheds, Thanks for the solid data on NdFeB demand for the...

ausheds, Thanks for the solid data on NdFeB demand for the BEV/PHEV sector. (But, why nothing of the sort on 48VMHs? I hate being a party pooper bringing that up.)

Anyway, let me be clear: You're not being a "party pooper" providing a more accurate source. Not at all.
The numbers I had were from a different source. They aren't "my" numbers. I didn't make them up.
I simply provided a link to what is undeniably a highly respectable source.

Why do the numbers not agree?
As it turns out, it's quite simple. The numbers I provided from the article "Role of substitution in mitigating the supply pressure of rare earths in electric road transport applications" are not forecasts at all, but targets. doh. My bad.

Essentially, in conjunction with the International Energy Agency, the Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI) Members

got together in 2013 and said "these are the targets we have to hit" to meet global CO2 reduction goals according to the IEA's "2°C Scenario". The EVI goal was set at 20 million EVs on the road by 2020.​

[NOTE: The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) is a multi-government policy forum dedicated to accelerating the introduction and adoption of electric vehicles worldwide. EVI is one of several initiatives launched in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial, a high-level dialogue among energy ministers from the world’s major economies. EVI currently includes 15 member governments from Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America, as well as participation from the International Energy Agency (IEA). EVI members represent 8 of the 10 largest vehicle markets in the world, 63% of the world’s total vehicle demand and 83% of EV sales between now and 2020 (projected)].

In 2017, Buchert et al published the paper entitled "Role of substitution in mitigating the supply pressure of rare earths in electric road transport applications" from which I took the graph I used to start this thread. The authors predicted the "supply pressure" that would be generated by meeting the EVI goal of 20 million vehicles by 2020, rather than using real numbers. In their defense, they don't really need to deal with real-time numbers, because their goal was simply to show what role substitution (aka "demand destruction" research and methods) will or might play in prevent supply-demand problems during the EV roll-out.

I hope that clears up the huge discrepancy.

On the downside, on closer reading, I'm almost positive that 48VMH are NOT included in the HEV segment. HEVs refer to full hybrids. An example of a full hybrid is the Toyota Prius. For purposes of this paper, to be an EV you have to have a separate all-electric drive mode.

Here's a link to an article entitled "The Three Main Types Of Hybrids Explained" that clears up the definitions of mild and full and plug-in hybrids.
http://www.hybridcars.com/the-three-main-types-of-hybrids-explained/

Lot's more later - going to a Black Panther matinee with my boys. (A matinee in America is an early showing of a movie with reduced admission price.)

p.s. Dy reduction research is a terrific enabler of Nd demand. This is also evident in the wind turbine market as per the article I posted in that thread.