Interesting that Cake are planning to focus on electric bikes...

Interesting that Cake are planning to focus on electric bikes (similar to our new E-max models) for the b2b delivery market instead of consumer mopeds etc. They are however only planning to service the Scandinavian market, which VMT are not covering anyway.

I am still considering whether to buy a final 500k block in VMT, or just be content with the current stake. Am I just being too gready?

At these prices the mathematical probability of making a killing is still strongly favourable.
The upside, if a few things go well, is substantial (my upside is $1 ps within 5 years), the downside is however very contained in my view. No debt, tangible assets and cash covering most of the current sp, so dilution is really the only probable downside, which could only really halve the ps price.

How to reach $1 ps? $25m at a P/E of 30 with 750m shares outstanding, for example.

A very rough calculation with 50/50 probability of the sp being $1 or 6c ( 8x or .5x)
$1 x 8 = $7 upside
$1 x .5 = -50c downside

7+-.5/2= 6.5 or 3.25 weighing at 50/50

Mathematical probability of making 3x your money in 5 years is a satisfactory return in my view.

Now the thing is, what are the actual probabilities of the share price being $1 in 5 years vs the probabilities of it being 6c? Which events can occur that would result in either?

Not advice.