Hey, yes, mine was just a very conservative projection; I am a banker after all. The exercise shows just how mispriced the bet is at the moment. Extreme upsides, still very much possible, as you suggested, are just an extra to me.
I bet with targets between 15 and 20% compound returns over 5 or 10 years, when there is substantial upside potential and minimal downside.
I have also assumed equal probability of sp being 6c and $1. I recognise that for the sp to go to 6c from here we would have to double shares outstanding or something very bad around the world would have to happen. In reality i would say that tangible assets are providing a safe floor that would make the 6c scenario quite improbable.
I dont need VMT to make $100m npat (or become a $10b company), for the bet to work out very well, for me anyhow.
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