I am bored with the TA's very long thread about double bottoms. S32 has been a trader's dream, moving up and down with predictable precision. This will change - it aways does.
I wanted to turn attention to Eagle Downs. The Quarterly mentions a feasibility study ahead of FID H2 CY 20.
Eagle Downs is a high quality met coal deposit JORC'ed at 1,122mt. It has water, power, road, rail and pre-production facilities on site. Joint venture partner BauWu had envisaged a longwall underground mine producing 4.5m tons a year then another long wall unit after ten years to double output with $1.2b in capex..That's 100 years mining at that rate.
S32 is operator. I think it will plan to ramp up production more aggressively than this, say, installing the second long wall unit after 3 years.
This is all provided industry continues to use the Bessemer process to make steel and global met coal prices remained attractive. Illawarra should soon be back to producing nameplate volumes and be well placed to fund S32's met coal expansion. And, of course, provided the returns are above the benefits of another buy back.
Ash
S32 Price at posting:
$3.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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