Fair points. I would just add that I still expect there to be...

Fair points.

I would just add that I still expect there to be ~500K satellite subs in the next report. Satellite subs will continue to reduce - but it will be over a period of time. Dropping to 300K subs will gradual over the next 5-10 years.
The new deal signed with Optus also gives Sky more flexibility around how much they pay as their capacity needs change (reduce) over time. Sky will also be able to sublease excess capacity to others (like Freeview) which is fantastic as it means the satellite business can remain viable for the foreseeable future even as subs continue to drop.

The growth area for Sky in NZ is VTV, NEON, Sky Sport NOW and soon Sky GO stand-alone. Sky could easily build up to $1M subs across these platforms (NEON taking the lion share).

And then there is rugby pass. Sky ended up getting RP for cheaper than the NZ$62M initially touted because about $15M of payments were contingent on RP hitting key targets I believe. I don't think these targets were met, so Sky picked the asset up for closer to $45M. My numbers might not be 100% correct here, but close enough.
RP still has huge potential - and rates have been slashed in Europe recently to drive up subs. If Sky get the pricing and mix of content right then RP alone could comfortably build to 1M subs. Even if, on average, they only charged NZ$120 for an annual pass that is still $120M of revenue - and the rugby rights do not cost anywhere near that for the parts of Europe and Asia that they have rights to.

Would mainland Europeans be prepared to pay ~€5.60 per month for some great live rugby content? I certainly think so. However US$15/month (~€12,73) probably feels a bit steep for potential subs that are not necessarily 'hard core' fans. I still see a lot of potential in this platform.

NZ$45M was definitely worth a punt on this platform in my view given the potential upside. And they could look at adding Rugby League and AFL etc so that it is not just Rugby Union focussed.