One also needs to consider the outcome of a possible spill next...

One also needs to consider the outcome of a possible spill next week regardless of who won.

If Rudd had a go and lost again, what possible reason could there be for him to hang around as a backbencher with no prospect of ever leading the Party? McClelland also is tipped to go.

If Rudd were to get up, what does Gillard, Roxon et al do? Would she hang around like bad laundry on the backbench? Ditto others who caned Rudd eg Graham Perrett who said last year he would resign if Rudd were returned.

The prospect of resignations and by-elections abounds regardless of who might gain control of the Titanic's wheel house.