Marginal National 2.6%
Date
Polling Day for the by-election is Saturday 22 May. The writ was issued and rolls closed on 30 April. Nominations closed at noon Thursday 6 May with the ballot draw on 7 May. Early voting began on Monday 10 May, iVote on Monday 17 May. Applications for postal votes closed a week before polling day. More details at theNSW Electoral Commission website.
Votes already cast
At the close of Pre-poll voting on Friday 21 May, the following number of early votes had been cast -
- There are 56,127 electors enrolled to vote at the by-election. In NSW, voters who are not enrolled are permitted to enrol and cast a declaration vote on polling day.
- The NSW Electoral Commission has dispatched 3,073 postal vote packs representing 5.5% of enrolled voters. So far 1,611 returned postal votes have been processed.
- A total of 19,310 pre-poll votes have been cast at the electorate's seven early voting centres representing 34.4% of enrolment.
- There have been 2,166 applications for iVotes representing 3.9% of voters. Of these applications, 1,922 iVotes have been completed.
- iVotes and some early voting centres will be counted on Saturday night. Other early voting centres will be counted on Sunday and the first postal count will take place on Monday.
Electorate Description
Unsurprisingly, the electorate of Upper Hunter covers the upper parts of the Hunter Valley to the west of Newcastle. Its spine is the New England Highway, running up the valley from Singleton through Muswellbrook, Scone and Murrurundi to Quirindi. Further south along the Golden Highway it includes Denman, Merriwa and extends as far west as Cassilis. It also covers areas north of Maitland, running up the Bucketts Way to include Dungog and Gloucester.
Upper Hunter has a mix of industries, including prime agricultural districts used for horse studs, vineyards and beef production. These compete for space and workforce with the vast open cut coal mines serving the electorate's power stations and supplying the export coal market through Newcastle. Upper Hunter is the state's fifth largest electorate in area at 27,687 square kilometres.
Larger scale map here (new window 9.5mb)or zoom in using the polling place map further down this page.
Maps courtesy of the NSW Electoral Commission.
Former MP
Michael Johnsen
Johnsen has lived in the Hunter Valley for three decades and previously worked as a dairy hand before moving into financial services. He served as Mayor for the Upper Hunter Shire Council in 2009-2012. He contested the Federal seat of Hunter for the National Party at the 1996, 2010 and 2013 Federal elections before succeeding George Souris as member for Upper Hunter in 2015. In this once very safe National Party seat, Johnsen was only narrowly elected at both the 2015 and 2019 elections.
By-election Cause
Michael Johnsen was instructed to resign by Premier Berejiklian and Nationals Leader John Barilaro after several extra-ordinary allegations. First there was an allegation made under parliamentary privilege of a government MP having sexually assaulted a sex-worker. Johnsen identified himself as the MP, denied the allegation, but stood aside from the Nationals pending an investigation. The following week, text messages between Johnsen and the sex-worker were revealed, some sent while he was in the Assembly, and some concerning the worker coming to Parliament to have sex. Johnsen was ordered to resign and did so the next day.
Background
Upper Hunter is one of the state's oldest electorates, first contested three years after self-government in 1859 and present on the state's electoral map at almost every election since. It has been held continuously by the Country/National Party since 1932. Former members include George Souris 1988-2015, who served as National Party Leader 1999-2003 and was a minister in the Greiner, Fahey and O'Farrell governments.
There was a 21% swing against the Nationals at the 2015 election, a wind back from the 2011 landslide and also reflecting the retirement of George Souris. There were also issues related to conflicts between agriculture and mining in 2011. Independent Tim Duddy polled 19.3% campaigning on mining and its impact on underground water and particulate pollution. In 2015 Independent Lee Watts polled 19.4% at an election where coal seam gas was a big local issue, as was the Baird government's campaign promise to privatise large parts of the state's electricity infrastructure.
This recent history highlights that the electorate's two rich and important industries, agriculture and mining, do not always live happily side by side. It is an issue likely to colour the Upper Hunter by-election campaign.
Opinion Polls
A YouGov Upper Hunter poll was published in the Daily Telegraph on Monday 17 May. It produced a two-party preferred result of National 51% to Labor 49%, but there are a few caveats about the poll. First the poll was of 400 voters and had a very high 19% undecided. Second, the poll's two-party preferred was based on voter nominated preferences, which haven't always had a great record in Australia compared to applying the last election's preferences. Especially with the Upper Hunter by-election being conducted under optional preferential voting.
More important are the first preferences which reported that no candidate or party polled more than a quarter of the vote. The Nationals led on 25%, Labor 23%, Shooters Fishers and Farmers 16%, One Nation 11%, Greens 6%, Independents O'Connell 6%, Reynolds 4% and Norman 3%, the Liberal Democrats on 3% and other candidates in total 3%.
Census Profile
According to the 2016 Census, Upper Hunter has a population profile like many regional NSW electorates, missing the large migrant base of seats in greater Sydney. According to the 2016 Census, the electorate has the state's third lowest proportion of non-Christians (1.3%, NSW 10.1%), the highest proportion of Anglicans (31.4%, NSW 15.5%) and the fourth lowest proportion of resident born in a non-English speaking country (2.9%, NSW 21.0%). It has the fifth lowest proportion of residents with at least one parent born overseas (16.2%, NSW 47.8%), and the fifth lowest using a language other than English at home (2.6%, NSW 25.1%).
The workforce has the state's highest proportion of the workforce employed in mining (15.4%, NSW 0.9%), double the rate in neighbouring Cessnock and Maitland. Upper Hunter also has the fifth highest proportion of the workforce employed in agriculture (10.9%, NSW 2.1%) and the sixth highest employed as technicians or trade workers (17.4%, NSW 12.7%). It has the sixth lowest proportion of workers with tertiary qualifications (17.1%, NSW 32.2%). eighth highest with trade qualifications (26.1%, NSW 18.1%) and the ninth highest proportion of residents who finished school at year 10 or earlier (50.1%, NSW 33.5%).
2019 Polling Place Results
Upper Hunter has a patchwork of polling results that reflect the electorate's industrial geography. Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities in Singleton and Muswellbrook in 2019, and in the several townships on the edge of Maitland. These are areas where mining is the dominant employer. But as the electorate spreads out to the north and west, various agricultural industries dominate employment and the National Party vote increases.
(Click on polling place for results)
Of the 40 polling places used at the 2019 election, Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities in 11, the highest 58.8% at Singleton Heights Public School. The Nationals recorded majorities in the other 29, above 60% in 17, reaching 81.2% at the tiny Moonan Flat Hall, north east of Scone.
The same pattern of results was recorded in the electorate's six pre-poll centres, Labor recording majorities in Singleton and Muswellbrook, the Nationals at the other four centres.
(Click on pre-poll centre for results)
The table below breaks down results into the three broad regions based on local government area. Around half of voters live in the Singleton and Muswellbrook council areas, the main centres of coal mining. To the east are Dungog, Gloucester and parts of Great Lakes councils. North of Muswellbrook lie the Upper Hunter and Liverpool Plains shires and a small part of Mid-Western Regional council. The table also includes entries for Postal/iVotes and Absents.
The figures show that Labor's support is strongest in the coal mining centre of the electorates, the Nationals strongest in more rural areas, and the SFF much stronger in the rural areas beyond Muswellbrook.
| First Preferences | Two-Party Preferred |
|---|
| Councils (% of votes) | NAT | ALP | SFF | OTH | NAT | ALP | Exh |
|---|
| Singleton/Muswellbrook (44.0) | 30.7 | 35.1 | 20.8 | 13.4 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 22.0 |
| Dungog/Gloucester (19.5) | 38.1 | 27.5 | 14.8 | 19.6 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 21.7 |
| Liverpool Plains/Upper Hunter (21.0) | 39.3 | 19.2 | 31.8 | 9.7 | 63.5 | 36.5 | 28.1 |
| Postal/iVote/Declaration (8.3) | 35.6 | 24.2 | 21.0 | 19.3 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 22.2 |
| Absent (7.3) | 25.5 | 25.1 | 21.8 | 27.5 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 35.0 |
Note- National and Labor two-party percentages calculated after excluding exhausted ballots. Exhausted percentage calculated as a percentage of formal vote.
Recent Trends in Party Support
The chart below plots first preference vote percentages by party since 1988. As the graph shows clearly, support for the Labor Party has barely budged in that time. Labor's vote collapsed to 17.9% at its nadir election in 2011, the next lowest 28.7% in 2019, but was between 31.0% and 32.5% at every other election.
There has been a decline in National support at recent elections, but this has not been to Labor's advantage. National primary vote support first fell below 50% at the 1999 election when Pauline Hanson's One Nation burst on the scene and polled 12.8%. At the last election contested by George Souris in 2011, the National vote was still 54.7%, but Upper Hunter was one of the few country electorates where National support did not benefit from Labor's vote haemorrhage.
The decline in National first preference support has accelerated at the last two elections with Michael Johnsen as the party's candidate. The party's first preference vote slipped to 38.9% in 2015, and an even worse 34.0% in 2019.
The beneficiaries of declining National support have been minor parties and independents. Independent Tim Duddy polled 19.3% in 2011 and finished second after preferences, and another independent, Lee Watts, polled 19.4% in 2015. Running as a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidate in 2019, Watts polled even higher with 22.0%.
Minor party and independent preferences have favoured Labor at the last two state elections, but the high rate of exhausted preferences under optional preferential voting have prevented Labor winning from second place. In 2015 Labor received 25.0% of preferences to 15.6% to the Nationals but 59.4% exhausted. In 2019 it was 19.6% to Labor and 15.7% to National with an even higher 64.7% exhausting.
The chart below shows the two-party preferred results in Upper Hunter since 2019, but includes exhausted preferences and calculates two-party preferred percentages as a proportion of formal votes.
If you exclude exhausted preferences, then the National two-party preferred vote has declined from 73.3% in 2011 to 52.2% in 2015 and 52.6% in 2019. Compare those figures to the two-party graph above and you can see that the decline in the National margin has been caused overwhelmingly by the decline in its first preference vote. As a percentage of the formal vote, Labor's two-party vote has the same pattern as its primary vote, barely rising. It is the loss of National Party support to minor parties and independents, then the tendency for those votes to exhaust rather than flow back to the Nationals as preferences, that has brought the National Party's result down to Labor's level.
As shown in the above graph, the National Party only achieved a plurality of the vote at the last two elections, that is a simple majority after excluding exhausted preferences. At both elections it fell well short of an absolute majority of the formal vote. Polling only 39.9% of the formal vote after preferences in 2019 is one of the lowest winning votes since NSW re-adopted optional preferential voting in 1980.
While there will be attention on preference deals for the by-election, the key figure to watch is the National Party's first preference percentage. If it stays at 34% or slides further, then the Nationals could lose the seat to either Labor or the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, if the flow of preferences between the two parties can increase on its 2019 rate of flow. A higher National first preference vote increases the chances of the party holding on, especially if its competitors end up evenly dividing the remaining vote.
Local Issues
As soon as the by-election was announced, some tried to paint the contest onto a broader national canvass about the future of coal. But as a local by-election in a regional area, the local debate will be on more prosaic issues. The conflict between mining and agriculture in Upper Hunter has been an issue at the last three state elections. Whether it be CSG explortion in Gloucester or coal mining near Scone and in the Liverpool Plains, the questions many local ask don't necessarily have more mines and power plants as expected answers. Local opposition to mining has been about water quality, dust and mine remediation, not about climate change. Only when it comes to jobs does the national debate tap into local debate.
What may be more important are issues that prove politics is always local. As soon as the by-election was announced, the long delayed Singleton by-pass was front and centre and with promises for a full interchange rather than the limited town access in the existing plan. All parties quickly agreed a full interchange was needed.
In March the government announced the sale of Scone TAFE to Racing NSW. It is an issue many locals were unhappy with and it taps into long-running Labor campaigns to revive the TAFE system across Australia.
Past Election Results
| 1950 | CP |
| 1953 | CP |
| 1956 | CP |
| 1959 | CP |
| 1962 | CP |
| 1965 | CP |
| 1968 | CP |
| 1970By | CP |
| 1971 | CP |
| 1973 | CP |
| 1976 | CP |
| 1978 | CP |
| 1981 | NAT |
| 1984 | NAT |
| 1988 | NAT |
| 1991 | NAT |
| 1995 | NAT |
| 1999 | NAT |
| 2003 | NAT |
| 2007 | NAT |
| 2011 | NAT |
| 2015 | NAT |
| 2019 | NAT |
Coloured tab indicates seat won by a party forming government
2019 Result
Candidates (13) in Ballot Paper Order
| Candidate Name | Party |
|---|
| O'CONNELL, Kirsty | Independent |
| LEA, Archie | Independent |
| PEARS, Eva | Liberal Democratic Party |
| McNAMARA, Dale | Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
| LAYZELL, David | The Nationals |
| NORMAN, Tracy | Independent |
| REYNOLDS, Steven | Independent |
| ABBOTT, Sue | The Greens |
| DRAYTON, Jeff | Labor |
| BLAIR, Calum | Sustainable Australia |
| DELLO-IACOVO, Michael | Animal Justice Party |
| GILROY, Sue | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
| FRASER, Kate | Independent |
Summary of How-to-Vote Recommendations
The following summarises the important preference recommendations based on how candidates are likely to poll. A copy of registered how-to-vote material is included in the candidate profiles listed below.
- The National Party, Animal Justice and Independents Archie Lea and Steven Reynolds have registered one-only how-to-votes with no further preference recommendations.
- The Shooters Fishers and Farmers, One Nation and Liberal Democrats are recommending preferences for each other, with the Shooters Fishers and Farmers going beyond the three parties to recommend a preference for Labor ahead of the Nationals.
- Independents Kirsty O'Connell and Tracy Norman have recommended second preferences for each other. Norman goes on to recommend preferences for Labor and then the Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
- The Greens recommend preferences for Independents Tracy Norman then Kirsty O'Connell before Labor.
- Labor recommends preferences for Independents Tracy Norman, Kirsty O'Connell then the Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
- Sustainable Australia and Independent Kate Fraser did not register how-to-vote material.
More Information
Kirsty O'Connell
Independent
O'Connell is a fifth-generation farmer and business woman from Aberdeen in the Upper Hunter. For the past 15 years she has been leading community engagement in large infrastructure projects.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Eva Pears
Liberal Democratic Party
Pears describes herself as a proud born and bred Novocastrian, her family having lived in the Hunter region for several generations. After studying Anthropology at LaTrobe University in Melbourne, Pears returned to Newcastle in 2016 and has worked at several high schools in the Hunter region as an English and HSIE teacher.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Dale McNamara
Pauline Hanson's One Nation
McNamara lives in Singleton and is a miner turned businessman.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
David Layzell
The Nationals
Layzell is a construction manager who lives in Clarence Town, which lies in Dungog Shire in the electorate's east. He defeated Singleton Mayor Sue Moore in local pre-selection ballot.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Tracy Norman
Independent
Former Dungog Mayor and daughter of Harvey Norman co-founder Ian Norman.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Steven Reynolds
Independent
Reynolds is a 39 year-old former coal miner and current Muswellbrook Shire Councillor.
HOW-TO-VOTE
Sue Abbott
The Greens
Abbott lives in Scone and has lived in the Upper Hunter for 40 years. She currently serves on Upper Hunter Shire Council.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Jeff Drayton
Labor
Drayton was born in the electorate at Denman. He has worked in the region his whole working life, is a former coal miner, and has worked in the mining sector for the past two decades. Drayton is currently CFMEU Mining and Energy district vice-president and is a former Deputy Mayor of Muswellbrook.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Calum Blair
Sustainable Australia
Blair was born and educated in Singleton before completing a Bachelor of Engineering (Civil) at Newcastle University. He currently works in the rail industry as a construction manager.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Micheal Dello-Iacovo
Animal Justice Party
Dello-Iacovo is a PhD candidate in space science, looking at off-Earth exploration, mining and asteroid impact risk, and has training in geoscience and climate science. He has been involved in animal advocacy and climate change advocacy in South Australia and New South Wales for 7 years. He was a candidate for the inner-Sydney seat of Heffron at the 2019 election.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Sue Gilroy
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Gilroy has been President of the Singleton Chamber of Commerce since 2017. She is a former nurse and now runs a career mentoring and coaching business.
WEBSITEHOW-TO-VOTE
Kate Fraser
Independent
Fraser is a Scone local and prominent landowner and previously served 15 years as an Upper Hunter Shire Councillor. Her father was Sir Alister McMullin, Liberal Senator for NSW 1951-1971 who holds the record as the longest serving Senate President, holding the chair for 18 years 1953-71.
WEBSITE
Information on candidates and how-to-vote material can be sent to
