earnings potential

From the July ppt:

"Volcanic geothermal is commercially proven, has lower costs than other geothermal sources and is faster to develop

• Panax expects final project economics to be robust with average revenues of US$125/MWh with a net margin after tax of 40% i.e. circa $420,000 per installed MW or US$35 million p.a. from the three projects.

So, they're expecting net after tax margins of $420k per installed MW.

At DR - 51% x 30MW x 420/inst. MW = $6.5m

PAX's current market cap!

Yet in the DR spiel:

"The Dairi prima project alone is expected to generate more than US$30 million gross revenue for Panax’s share."

.51 x 40% x 30 = $6.12m

But remember, the first 8 years under the PPA receive 150/MWh so margins will be circa 25% higher again.....

Sokoria where they have 45% they'll earn circa $5.7m p.a.

By 2016 (not that far away in the bigger scheme...) with Sokoria at full capacity too they'll be earning after tax some USD 12.6 million per annum (pretty much guaranteed by GIO)

Or EPS of 2 cps. (undiluted)

Add Ngebel - about $8m profit per 55MW installed or $25m for the full 165MW installed.

At full steam (pun intended) from these three projects - $36m.

(which ties in with the initial quote of $35m from p5 of the ppt)

Then there's the other projects.....

Any comments?