Earnings

Hi All

Please look at my assumptions and help me understand how TGS is trading at 4.2c.


Worst case scenario -
32.5KT = 71.5 Mlb
$2.2/lb (break even) X 71.5 Mlb = $157.3M
$2.7/lb (sell price) X 71.5 Mlbs = $193.05M
Profit = $35.75M
EPS = $0.0178
Fair Value SP = $0.0178 X 5 = $0.089

Best case scenario -
32.5KT = 71.5 Mlb
$2.0/lb (break even) X 71.5 Mlb = $143.0M
$2.7/lb (sell price) X 71.5 Mlbs = $193.05M
Profit = $50.05M
EPS = $0.025
Fair Value SP = $0.025 X 5 = $0.125

Extremely good case scenario -
32.5KT = 71.5 Mlb
$2.0/lb (break even) X 71.5 Mlb = $143.0M
$3.0/lb (sell price) X 71.5 Mlbs = $214.5M
Profit = $71.5M
EPS = $0.0357
Fair Value SP = $0.0357 X 5 = $0.178

Shares outstanding 2B.
Assumed risk incorporated PE 5.
Assumed production is OK @ 32.5KT.

Even at worst case the SP should be double. Are we only a 2.5PE company?
Am I wrong here?

Loser