Extract after 1/2 yearly.
Modelling Changes
Incorporating the better H1 result drives a 34% lift in our FY21e NPAT to $119m. Lynas
has installed plant capacity at present of ~7.2ktpa of NdPr but has concentrate
processing licences that effectively cap this at 5.6ktpa. We had been modelling Lynas to
receive an uplift to align licences with capacity in 2021H2 but have now pushed this to
2022H1. This cuts our FY22e production by 5% to 6.5kt and drives a 13% downgrade
to our NPAT to $156m. Lynas have been applying for concentrate licence uplift for
several years but it remains outstanding and a risk to our forecasts for FY22-24e.
Earnings..., page-8
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