I very largely agree with your analysis - not that I know that mine is correct, I don't know anymore than anyone else does - but in myself I concur with what you are posing. We'll just have to see what happens.
However I think that Fred has a clear goal in his own mind, and that it is one that most SH will ultimately agree with and be glad of. He has been pushing the venture in that direction for many years - too many for all of us, himself included. He believed that creating a working device was going to be easier than it has proved to be. I have no idea what any others involved response to this was, but from a tech point of view most companies would be wary of his 4 phase plan being straightforward with no hitches. At each stage that the finished product loomed large in front of us, that goal was blocked by technical problems that required detailed complex and novel solutions to be tried and perfected. That is the nature of this field and many other similar fields that manage physics and chemistry in ways that require our acknowledgment and understanding before they will allow us to accomodate our engineering efforts to the real nature of things, and that cannot be forced through simply by demanding results. It does not work that way. It's not business acumen or motivation that is needed.
So what was Fred's plan about? I believe that he saw the enormous potential of having a speaker chip that would work the way it had been pitched to him. He wanted this to happen ASAP, of course, and funded it to become a venture focussed on making it happen - in a way that would make the biggest possible impact when it launched, and within a time frame that he could most benefit from. I imagine (of course with no familiarity with what actually happened) that both of these appealed very strongly to FB at this point in his life, in a way that a longer, more leisurely, in-house R&D program would have produced. Along with all his co-investors, Fred wanted this to happen in a hurry, so he could realise the gains it would bring if it was successful, in a timeframe that was most useful to them all. And as an early investor myself I could not agree more with that sentiment.
So this is a venture that I expect the Barts' have a bit of a love/hate relationship with - just the same as many others here do. We are all frustrated more than anything at the litany of problems and delays, many coming from the fact that the co does not own its own FAB, and has to beg time on the FAB lines of others, at the lowest possible cost. But that has to be seen as being a frustration to Fred in particular, give how much of his own dosh he has invested in it.
The last time we were at this stage was in 2023 and this was Fred Bart's comment at the AGM when the finished chip was eagerly awaited:
"... Let me start by thanking our shareholders for their patience supporting the massive undertaking to revolutionize the multibillion-dollar sound reproduction industry. Given our recent accomplishments, I am increasingly optimistic that your patience will be rewarded many times over.I would also like to extend my appreciation to our fabrication partners in particular Earth Mountain, who continues to spare no effort or resource trying to meet our fabrication demands and objectives, including by undertaking the expansion of their fabrication capabilities to include two additional silicon foundries.
As we announced, in-person live demonstrations will occur upon availability of our 2nd generation Chip, which is currently anticipated to be shipped by the vendor sometime in mid to late July. GEN-II chips are anticipated to deliver the targeted specification sought by the industry, and for that and other commercial reasons we are not deviating from this plan.
However, I do want you to share in our enthusiasm and for that reason I asked Danny and Yuval to connect us live to our anechoic chamber where Yuval will demonstrate a few exciting aspects of our technology even when using our GEN-I chip. ..."
These are the kind of thing one says when one is confident that one has achieved and accomplished a goal, and is able and eager to thank all those others (both SH and business partners) who have helped make it possible. After a long period of incremental technical progress, with so many stops and starts and delays, there is very little bet-hedging being proffered here, no if's or but's. It is clear: this is going to happen, that will be the result.
It is not what one says if one is running a scam that one knows is a going to crash very shortly. Why set oneself up to become a target of indignation and anger for everyone who has ever trusted in your words.
My personal conclusion is that the whole company, from Fred down, was then, and I expect is again, totally confident that it is on the verge of a new era of audio excellence, and that it would mean substantial success in the marketplace for both the chip and for shareholders value.
I am still of that opinion, even if another year has passed between then and now. I am also of the opinion that Fred and the company are currently very hopeful that it can get the finished product 'imminently', while it is suspended from trading, so that it can obtain finance to take the product to market before it has to raise cash for future expansion. The further out it can push any CR the higher the SP will be, and the fewer new shares it will have to create to raise the required cash, and that will minimise the dilution of all the shares in existence. I think Fred is hoping to play a hand with 4 Aces and a King. Won't that be nice for us all.
Who is right? Is it the 'true believers' or the 'sideline scoffers'. Only time will tell. DYOR.
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