Hi Nev. Please read on.
It is long winded (but not that long) Image at bottom of post that Climate models are based upon.
Many peeps
use the Energy Budget model
as shown at end of of post) as “proof” that CO₂ is the primary driver of surface warming. Many rely on this framework as if it were an unquestionable foundation of climate science
, but here’s the problem:The Energy Budget model assumes that radiative emissions (back radiation) from CO₂ are what drive near-surface temperature changes.
But here’s the truth: CO₂ does not radiate any meaningful energy in the troposphere.
That’s it. That’s the fundamental flaw.
Yet again, we see a version of “proof” being presented that ignores the dominant energy transfer mechanisms in the troposphere—collisional energy transfer, conduction, convection, and latent heat. The IPCC and other mainstream models are based on a world where these fundamental processes are treated as secondary or, in some cases, ignored altogether.
Where the Radiative Model Fails
The Energy Budget chart often presented as "fact" is actually a radiative model—a theoretical construct that does not accurately represent how energy is distributed in the troposphere.
Here’s why:
- Collisional energy transfer (CDE) dominates the troposphere—trillions of molecules collide with Earth’s surface every microsecond, transferring energy far more efficiently than radiation.
- CO₂ absorbs radiative energy within the first few meters of the surface (~12 W/m² max). After that, its role in direct radiative energy absorption is negligible because the energy is instantly transferred via collisions to non-radiative gases (N₂, O₂).
- Once energy is absorbed by the bulk atmosphere, convection—not radiation—becomes the dominant transfer mechanism moving heat upward.
CO₂ as a Coolant, Not a Heater
Here’s where mainstream climate science gets it completely backwards:
- CO₂ does not contribute to warming the troposphere because it does not radiate effectively at lower altitudes due to high collision rates.
- However, at higher altitudes, where molecular collisions are much less frequent, CO₂ becomes a critical radiative coolant, efficiently emitting energy to space.
- This means that rather than “trapping” heat, CO₂ actually helps remove energy from the atmosphere—something the standard models fail to emphasize.
The Bottom Line
The real mechanism driving tropospheric temperature is not CO₂ radiative forcing, but convective and collisional energy transfer. The energy budget model is radiative-heavy and is incomplete.
The scientific reality is this:
- CO₂ plays a much larger role in cooling the atmosphere than warming it.
- Near the surface, conduction, convection, and latent heat dominate over radiative transfer.
- At higher altitudes, CO₂ does emit energy—but primarily as a means of cooling, not warming.
That’s the simple fact of it. The “CO2 dominates surface warming” argument crumbles the moment you apply actual atmospheric physics rather than relying on a radiative-only model.
