"competition for low supply of new jobs will keep wages growth...

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nosirommit

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04/12/19

14:56

Post #: 41792167
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Originally posted by lispingduck: ↑

The recent 'recovery' has seen some predictions of a return to a rising market. Buyers, especially in the east cost majors Syd & Melb need to exercise extreme caution. Speculators and investors beware. The data is not always what it seems and it can turn the other way rather quick as has been proven in markets like Perth with early recovery calls.

Obviously Perth had its own unique problems, and not all suburbs will be hit or hit heavily, but the general market conditions will boiled down to supply and economic activity. Population growth may still be strong in the East cities but this creates it own problems - competition for low supply of new jobs will keep wages growth low if not negative. Supply will continue to come on from past commencements and developers needs to maintain 'production/operations' - particularly large apartment projects and new land supply in the fringes will continue to come on - so buyer beware.

If you are going to buy a home and its will be easily affordable and you have no problems holding it if prices decline 10-20% - go ahead. Investors need to be extra careful.

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"competition for low supply of new jobs will keep wages growth low if not negative"

While the Oz Unemployment rate seems high, NSW and VIC are below 5% and have been for a long time.
Most business owners I speak to have the opposite problem, finding quality employees is still difficult.

Construction starts are falling dramatically which will limit forward supply.

Personally I am exercising caution but it is more to do with my forecasts for regional and global issues than NSW.
We are ticking along just nicely over here.
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