Whilst the deterioration in the East Coast gas market has been well known (or forecast) for some time... It is only now sitting right in front of everyone's faces, with substantial risk from Q4 2025 onwards.
The recent capital raise was not supported well, which to me was a surprise to me (given the long dated options).... BAS are capital constrained and either require a JV, or, to raise capital again, however both Kiwi and Venessa has substantial potential, particularly if the East Coast market is tightended further. IMO timing and rational for the Venessa transactions was absolutely bang on from BAS, however they need the $$$ to develop to take advantage of the assets/reserves.
Links below.
https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/gas-inquiry-interim-june-2025.pdf
https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/deteriorating-short-term-outlook-for-east-coast-gas-supply#:~:text=Prices%20have%20continued%20to%20decrease,for%20both%20producers%20and%20retailers.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2021/mar/understanding-the-east-coast-gas-market.html#:~:text=Analysis%20conducted%20for%20the%20Australian,range%20observed%20prior%20to%202015.
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