The AED saga has really comes across as the same scenario as...

The AED saga has really comes across as the same scenario as Hardman in Mauritania - HDR got so excited to be producing something after such a long lead time that they announced massively optimistic production levels that were definitely sustainable but were in the "everything needs to go right" category.
Exactly the same thing here.

At Hardman they learnt their lesson and were totally conservative on their next find (in Uganda) which did nothing for the sp and eventually saw them taken over by UK oiler at a bargain price that was barely enough for most of us to get out with our bank balances intact.

All round it was a disaster.

AED has also gone for the exciting, top-end production targets, which did offer those smart enough or knowledgeable enough a chance to make a killing on the inevitable hysterical sp rise but again did not factor in the "everything has to go right" quotient, which, again, has raised its ugly head.

What's needed is consolidation and reassurance from the company to the market on the 10,000bpd and open and frank reporting on any production increases as they happen - after all POO still means 10,000 bpd is still a pretty good return - and those of us who missed the boat last time may still get out of this in the black.

That's my hope and sane heads need to prevail.

Good luck to all and DYOR