EBR Valuations

I thought it would be interesting to consider poster's views on EBR share price valuation.
Yes it's premature, as of end of March 2023. The company is still pre SOLVE CRT trial outcome, pre PMA application to the FDA, pre- commercialisation. But IMO an investor needs to consider what is the potential for a Company’s share price (ok, CDI price sensuo stricto for EBR!).

I am a fundamentally-driven investor, not technical Chartist, and apart from considering the speculative aspect of a share, I tend to develop a rough order-of-magnitude spreadsheet analysis of companies I consider having considerable potential. IMO EBR fits that description perfectly notwithstanding its still very early days.

I tend to modify my Initial rough and ready forecast as I get more information, and thus over time the valuation analysis gets sharper from that initial rough guide.

Already I have developed a very rough valuation for EBR, which obviously assumes that the next steps are completed successfully, and that forecast assumes very conservative development of WISE roll-out, on that estimated initial US$2.5 billion market.

In the first 3 full years of the WISE rollout I assume 3.5%, then 5%, then 10% of market share. I assume US$35,000 per patient per WISE, and assume initially 45 clinics involved, rising to 100 over that initial3 years, thus it represents a conservative 1.07 patient per week/ clinic in year 1, rising to 1.37 patients per clinic per week in year 3. I consider that quite an achievable but modest rollout, but I'm happy to be corrected.

I assume an initial 40% margin on the initial years revenue, rising to 60% year 3 (management have stated an eventual expectation of 70% margin), and have incorporated management and corporate overheads beyond those margins and consider them conservative (ie excessive!).

Anyway, at a fixed US/A$ exchange rate of $0.70 to cut a long story short, I've forecast year 1 price of $1.41, year 2 $2.55, year 3 $5.53, based on conservative P/E multiples, initially 15, then 14, then 12. (Even now Cochlear trades at something like a 40x to 50x P/E range, and yes EBR is not Cochlear - yet!).

Of course I haven't bothered to consider the broader whole-of-pacemaker market, of US$7+ billion. The mind boggles at the potential!

Now I'm happy to leave it for now, for others to comment, for me to be criticised and to be corrected.

The message I'm trying to convey with this initial rough and ready valuation, is that EBR has the potential to be a very successful and profitable company, subject to it jumping the hurdles we all know are out there.
(And I'm sure that the threat of a takeover early on in EBR's life after initial commercialisation will loom large!).

Anyone? Views, comments . . .